03S東移回到海上, JTWC再次發出TCFA



再增強的話應該還是叫03S Grant ?


最新: 29日早上, JTWC降格為medium, 因為高層條件較差, LLCC呈狹長狀

"DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND ELONGATED LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM."

真的撞到掛掉了 Tropical Cyclone 03S (Grant) Warning #05 Final Warning
Issued at 27/0300Z

FW了

ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/211800Z-221800ZDEC2011//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5S
134.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 132.5E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS BEEN EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE
ARAFURA SEA. THE 211200Z PGTW UPPER-LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SUBSTANTIAL DEEP MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN, AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO THE
HIGHLY FAVORABLE UPPER- AND LOWER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTS, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

回復 3# 妮妲 啊！真的ㄟ
謝謝提醒！

被評為LOW的好像是92P耶~
94S在澳洲北方陸地附近