簽到天數: 971 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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jwpk9899|2012-2-2 09:03
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本帖最後由 jwpk9899 於 2012-2-2 09:03 編輯
2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1S
141.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 141.5E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 011200Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS TIGHT
CYCLONIC TURNING SOUTHWEST OF WALLABY ISLAND WITH CENTRAL WINDS OF
20-25 KNOTS, AND 30 KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS A FEW DEGREES TO THE WEST.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KOWANYAMA (40 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER)
INDICATE ONLY 10-15 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH SLP VALUES AS LOW
AS 994 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS POSITIONED
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH A POINT-SOURCE OF
DIFFLUENCE APPROXIMATELY 12 DEGREES TO THE EAST. THESE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE CREATING MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARDS UNDER THE MONSOONAL FLOW AND EMERGE OVER
THE WARM WATERS OF THE CORAL SEA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. DUE TO
THE INCREASED PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS WHEN THE LLCC
EMERGES OVER THE CORAL SEA, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO MEDIUM.
MEDIUM了!! |
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