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LOW報文;P
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0N
142.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 137.1E, APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM LIES WELL
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
(15 TO 20 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 101036Z SSMIS
91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED,
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH NO DISCERNABLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) TO SPEAK OF. A 100009Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS INDICATES A
BROAD AREA OF SHARP TROUGHING, BUT IS INSUFFICIENT IN DETERMINING
IF THE DISTURBANCE IS A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THIS POINT. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA REMAIN A FAVORABLE 27 TO 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. |
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