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mydeardude|2012-9-30 10:51
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補上JTWC 報文
WTPN21 PGTW 300200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2N 150.7E TO 19.3N 147.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 300130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6N 150.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 111.7E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 150.7E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NEW VORTEX HAS
EMERGED AND BECOME THE DOMINANT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS HAVE CONSIDERABLY DEEPENED
AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LLCC OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS
PROGRESSION IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INCLUDING A 302314Z AMSU-B PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MARGINAL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT WITH IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. IN VIEW OF THE IMPROVED
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
010200Z. //
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