1220 凱米登陸越南

桑達 · 2012-9-30 20:12

他也TCFA了不過因該是94W先命名渦度泛紅〜

mydeardude · 2012-9-30 17:42

香港天文台 (16:30, 30/09/2012):

另一方面，一個低壓區正影響南海中部，並預料會在未來一兩日發展為熱帶氣旋。

全新字眼。很少在天氣概況會這樣提及, 可見天文台頗重視95W。:)

mydeardude · 2012-9-30 14:18

95W 已升為MEDIUM

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9N
113.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 113.2E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LINEAR BAND OF CONVECTION OVER AN ELONGATED, BROADLY DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS ABOUT 07 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS MINIMAL WESTWARD OUTFLOW. A FEW
NUMERICAL MODELS DEVELOP THE SYSTEM BUT HAVE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS AS
TO THE MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY AT THIS TIME. A RECENT ASCAT PASS
INDICATED WINDS WERE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON IMPROVING
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

mydeardude · 2012-9-30 13:19

香港天文台七天天氣預報 (11:30, 30/9/2012):

另一方面，南海中部一個低壓區會在本週逐漸發展，並為南海北部帶來不穩定的天氣。

香港天文台支持發展。:)

J18 · 2012-9-30 10:05

本帖最後由 J18 於 2012-9-30 10:08 編輯

兩者都出現對流爆發的現象!
發展的淺力皆高!

ben811018 · 2012-9-29 22:25

東北季風跟西南風在南海會合~ 造就了95W這個熱低壓

未來會先滯留一段時間，當北方高壓出海後順著偏東氣流再往西前進

950233 · 2012-9-29 22:08

WOW!!!!和94同時被日本9點升到GW~~~

中秋驚喜XDD 艾維尼如果長命一點搞不好還可以締造4颱紀錄~~

期待95未來在南海的發展

jick810530 · 2012-9-29 22:06

本帖最後由 jick810530 於 2012-9-29 22:18 編輯

熱帯低気圧
平成24年09月29日22時35分発表


<29日21時の実況>
大きさ	-
強さ	-
	熱帯低気圧
存在地域	南シナ海
中心位置	北緯 13度30分(13.5度)
	東経 112度55分(112.9度)
進行方向、速さ	ほとんど停滞
中心気圧	1006hPa
最大風速	15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速	23m/s(45kt)

<30日21時の予報>
強さ	-
存在地域	南シナ海
予報円の中心	北緯 13度25分(13.4度)
	東経 112度10分(112.2度)
進行方向、速さ	西ゆっくり
中心気圧	1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速	18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速	25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径	220km(120NM)