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mydeardude|2012-9-30 14:18
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顯示全部樓層
95W 已升為MEDIUM
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9N
113.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 113.2E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LINEAR BAND OF CONVECTION OVER AN ELONGATED, BROADLY DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS ABOUT 07 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS MINIMAL WESTWARD OUTFLOW. A FEW
NUMERICAL MODELS DEVELOP THE SYSTEM BUT HAVE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS AS
TO THE MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY AT THIS TIME. A RECENT ASCAT PASS
INDICATED WINDS WERE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON IMPROVING
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM. |
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