(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.5N 135.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 95NM SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
DUE TO CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. A 210436Z AMSU IMAGE
INDICATES FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING ONLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PALAU SHOW SUSTAINED EASTERLY
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS AND SLP NEAR 1006MB. A SHIP OBSERVATION 200NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CURRENT POSITION INDICATES A WESTERLY WIND
BURST WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 17 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENT NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE 21/00Z PTRO SOUNDING
ALSO DEPICTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COLUMN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
