簽到天數: 971 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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jwpk9899|2012-12-28 19:33
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本帖最後由 帥神 於 2013-1-4 23:22 編輯
這一支 JTWC也給他LOW
昨天跟今天比起來 型態有好轉很多了
EC也預測他強度跟97S差不多優
另外，昨天兩擾動的路線好像是互相靠近 今天就轉開囉(真的咩..
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.5S 68.0E, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED LLCC. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO TRACK BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, RESULTING IN DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC IS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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