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SHYUDOL|2013-4-7 20:18
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似乎沒人發現94S已經被評為LOW了...
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.9S 97.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 310 NM NORTH OF COCOS ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION
OVER WHAT SEEMS TO BE A VERY ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), AS DETAILED IN THE 061718Z OSCAT PASS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH MODERATE 20-KNOT
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) DUE TO THE CURRENT LOCATION WELL
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. OCEAN PARAMETERS ARE
VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-
31 DEGREES CELSIUS AND SUFFICIENT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT EXTENDING TO
10 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POLEWARD TRACK SUGGESTED BY MODEL
GUIDANCE COULD CAUSE VWS TO RELAX WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, SUCH DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEAR
FUTURE AND COULD TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. |
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