(剛剛不小心點錯帖...重發)
其實BOM提升的很快
已經提升到澳式C3了
不過BOM預估大約就澳式C3的強度
之後逐漸減弱(南邊有西澳涼流阿

BOM命名為Victoria 大陸論壇譯名''維多利亞''


AXAU01 APRF 090707
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0706 UTC 09/04/2013
Name: Tropical Cyclone Victoria
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 12.3S
Longitude: 102.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [160 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [16 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
+12: 09/1800: 13.9S 103.4E:     045 [080]:  050  [095]:  990
+24: 10/0600: 15.3S 104.1E:     070 [130]:  060  [110]:  983
+36: 10/1800: 16.5S 104.7E:     090 [165]:  055  [100]:  986
+48: 11/0600: 18.2S 105.3E:     110 [200]:  045  [085]:  992
+60: 11/1800: 20.0S 105.8E:     130 [235]:  030  [055]: 1002
+72: 12/0600: 22.7S 106.3E:     145 [270]:  030  [055]: 1002

螺旋性轉佳~~
JTWC也於剛剛升為MEDIUM
這隻看起來滿有潛力的
不過還是跟前一個21S一樣
附近垂直風切都偏強~~




THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.6S
101.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 101.8E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO A
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN 080208Z AND 080303Z ASCAT PASSES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
UNDERNEATH STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) HOWEVER, THESE VALUES SHOULD DECREASE AS THE DISTURBANCE
TRACKS POLEWARD. THE CURRENT LOCATION IS A FEW DEGREES EQUATORWARD
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29 TO 31 DEGREES CELSIUS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVING
ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

有人被這張圖騙到麻~
這只是對流的空洞哦~
下午3點的圖~