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krichard2011|2013-5-8 11:12
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JTWC已於剛剛對JTWC發出TCFA
以上是在下課時間於學校圖書館偷發 ... XD
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.0S 83.5E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.2S 82.6E, APPROXIMATELY 605 NM EAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING
HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CONSOLIDATED AND DEEPENED AS THE LLCC HAS BECOME
BETTER-DEFINED. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES, THE LATEST OF WHICH IS A
072334Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE PASS, SHOW THE PROGRESSIVE CONSOLIDATION OF
THE FEEDER BANDS THAT ARE MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) NORTHERLY VWS. THE VWS,
HOWEVER, IS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO START TRACKING MORE POLEWARD INTO LOWER VWS.
THE DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. IN VIEW OF THE SIGNIFICANT
CONSOLIDATION AND ANTICIPATED LOWER VWS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
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