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TXPZ24 KNES 220001
TCSENP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94E)
B. 21/2345Z
C. 11.7N
D. 101.6W
E. FIVE/GOES-E
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON .2+ BROKEN BAND ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SCHWARTZ
WTPN21 PHNC 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.7N 100.0W TO 16.8N 108.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.1N 101.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12N
100.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 101.2W, APPROXIMATELY 305 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED
UNDERNEATH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. A 220030Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS THE CONSOLIDATING LLCC AND INDICATES FRAGMENTED BANDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 211852Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS
INDICATED 15-20 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING THE ELONGATED LLCC. UPPER
LEVEL ANLAYSIS INDICATES GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS WELL AS LOW (5 TO
10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED BETWEEN 18 AND 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF
THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
230300Z.
//
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