13E.Manuel 出海奇蹟成Cat1 二度襲擊墨西哥＊

CX723-A330 · 2013-9-14 19:44

本帖最後由 CX723-A330 於 2013-9-14 19:49 編輯

krichard2011 發表於 2013-9-14 19:36
這隻螺旋性不錯
只是可惜太靠近陸地
可能還未能整合好可能就撞上路地

又不要那麼快絕望
以後期撞上陸地的角度看，它應該還有岀海的機會
而且它後期的路徑與大西的英格瑞很接近，說不定他們會在陸上合併增強

krichard2011 · 2013-9-14 19:36

這隻螺旋性不錯
只是可惜太靠近陸地
可能還未能整合好可能就撞上路地
從預測路徑上來看這隻發展空間就比較拘限了
因此未來強度不是很看好不過預測強度還是有55kts

jwpk9899 · 2013-9-14 05:23

命名  預測巔峰50kt
路徑大致上很快撞墨西哥所以發展空間也沒說很大
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL

INIT  13/2100Z 15.6N 102.1W 35 KT  40 MPH
12H  14/0600Z 16.0N 102.3W 45 KT  50 MPH
24H  14/1800Z 16.8N 102.4W 50 KT  60 MPH
36H  15/0600Z 17.9N 102.7W 50 KT  60 MPH
48H  15/1800Z 18.9N 103.2W 30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
72H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

martin191919 · 2013-9-13 23:04

EP, 13, 2013091312, , BEST, 0, 156N, 1011W, 30, 999,

TXPZ29 KNES 131201
TCSENP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90E)
B.  13/1145Z
C.  14.6N
D.  101.1W
E.  FIVE/GOES-E
F.  T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING FOR DT=1.5.  MET AND PT AGREE.  FT IS BASED
ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
NIL

...SALEMI

krichard2011 · 2013-9-13 20:23

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2013-9-13 20:23 編輯

JTWC發出TCFA
這隻緯度偏低有發展空間

martin191919 · 2013-9-13 07:03

TXPZ29 KNES 121758
TCSENP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90E)

B.  12/1745Z

C.  14.4N

D.  99.2W

E.  FIVE/GOES-E

F.  T1.0/1.0/D0.5/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING FOR DT=1.0.  MET AND PT AGREE.
FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

...SALEMI

martin191919 · 2013-9-13 06:55

NHC：30％
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

martin191919 · 2013-9-12 06:59

THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.