1324 丹娜絲快速朝北北東移動影響日韓

丹尼兒 · 2013-10-4 15:32

附上雙颱預測路徑照幾乎重疊再一起也算是值得留念的存檔下來

jick810530 · 2013-10-4 15:26

本帖最後由 jick810530 於 2013-10-4 15:30 編輯

24號丹娜絲成形囉!!!
台風第24号 (ダナス)
平成25年10月04日16時20分発表

<04日15時の実況>
大きさ       -
強さ       -
存在地域       マリアナ諸島
中心位置       北緯 16度25分(16.4度)
東経 146度20分(146.3度)
進行方向、速さ       西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧       1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速       18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速       25m/s(50kt)
15m/s以上の強風域       北東側 220km(120NM)
南西側 170km(90NM)

<05日15時の予報>
強さ       -
存在地域       マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心       北緯 17度50分(17.8度)
東経 141度40分(141.7度)
進行方向、速さ       西北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧       996hPa
中心付近の最大風速       20m/s(40kt)
最大瞬間風速       30m/s(60kt)
予報円の半径       140km(75NM)

<06日15時の予報>
強さ       -
存在地域       日本の南
予報円の中心       北緯 20度00分(20.0度)
東経 136度35分(136.6度)
進行方向、速さ       西北西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧       990hPa
中心付近の最大風速       23m/s(45kt)
最大瞬間風速       35m/s(65kt)
予報円の半径       260km(140NM)

<07日15時の予報>
強さ       -
存在地域       日本の南
予報円の中心       北緯 22度40分(22.7度)
東経 131度05分(131.1度)
進行方向、速さ       西北西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧       985hPa
中心付近の最大風速       25m/s(50kt)
最大瞬間風速       35m/s(70kt)
予報円の半径       390km(210NM)

krichard2011 · 2013-10-3 22:03

JTWC預測圖出來了
未來上看Cat.1 不過預期未來會被西風槽勾走

CX723-A330 · 2013-10-3 21:07

JTWC已經把97W正式升格為23W

1431036707 · 2013-10-3 07:27

TCFA

krichard2011 · 2013-10-3 07:26

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2013-10-3 08:19 編輯

JTWC 疑似已發出TCFA
以下為報文
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 151.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 149.6E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS ENHANCED FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ILL-DEFINED, CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 021948Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF LLCC. THE VORTICITY SIGNATURE IS SYMMETRICAL, COLLOCATED WITH THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE DISTURBANCE AND HAS SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (05 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE OUTFLOW, WHICH IS BEING HINDERED BY A TUTT LOCATED TO NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO PERSISTENT, CONSOLIDATING ENHANCED CONVECTION AND FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

蔡秉勳 · 2013-10-2 21:42

感謝J18大的提醒,差點忘記它的存在><
<02日21時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域南鳥島近海
中心位置北緯 16度40分(16.7度)
東経 150度40分(150.7度)
進行方向、速さ西南西ゆっくり
中心気圧 1006hPa
最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<03日21時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心北緯 16度25分(16.4度)
東経 148度00分(148.0度)
進行方向、速さ西 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 220km(120NM)

t02436 · 2013-10-2 21:16

未來丹娜絲?已發Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 151.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 151.2E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. A 020014Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT MAX WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE BETTER DEFINITION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.