THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 149.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 149.1E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS (LLCC) AND BROAD, ALBEIT BROKEN, CONVECTIVE BANDING LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 090724Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH BROKEN CONVECTION WRAPPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KTS) AND DIFFLUENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 150.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 149.5E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BROAD CONVECTIVE BANDING, PRIMARILY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 082012Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE, FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE NORTH AND EAST QUADRANTS WRAPPING LOOSELY INTO THE BROAD LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05 TO 10 KTS) AS WELL AS GOOD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
