1327 范斯高轉化溫帶氣旋略過日本南方

t02436 · 2013-10-15 08:02

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-8-27 16:54 編輯

  強烈颱風
編號  : 1327 ( 26W )
名稱  : 范斯高 ( FRANCISCO )

基本資料
擾動編號日期 : 2013 年 10 月 15日 08 時
  命名日期       : 2013 年 10 月 16日 20 時
  消散日期       : 2013 年 10 月 26日 14 時
  登陸地點       : 無

  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速
　中央氣象局 (CWB) :   55  m/s (   16 級 )
　日本氣象廳 (JMA)  :   55  m/s (  105 kt )
美國海軍 (JTWC) : 140  kts  (  CAT 5 )

　最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑
　海平面最低氣壓 : 915  百帕
　七級風半徑    ：  250  公里
　十級風半徑    ：    80  公里

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片

93W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-14.7N-150.2E

--------
颱風衛星影像

以上資料來自 :CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇編輯製作

t02436 · 2013-10-15 17:09

已評Medium!

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 151.1E, IS NOW LOCATED 385 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING NEAR A LOWLEVEL WAVE EVIDENT IN A 142020Z TRMM IMAGE. THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, AN ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALOFT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, RELAXING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE UPPERLEVEL OUTFLOW. MULTIPLE NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

888894 · 2013-10-16 05:17

TCFA!!!
WTPN23 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.7N 147.8E TO 10.7N 141.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 151932Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 146.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3N
148.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 146.5E, APPROXIMATELY 107 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 151633Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS PERSISTENT CONVECTION THAT HAS DEEPENED WITH A SLIGHT
CURVATURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 151152Z ASCAT PASS
DEPICTED A 20 KNOT ELONGATED CIRCULATION LOCATED SLIGHTLY NORHEAST
OF GUAM. 161958Z OBSERVATIONS IN GUAM HAVE INDICATED PRESSURES
DROPPING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS TO 1005.8 HPA WITH 20-24 KNOT WINDS.
THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO
THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
162100Z.
//
NNNN

888894 · 2013-10-16 05:18

JMA已發GW!!

熱帯低気圧
平成25年10月16日04時25分発表

<16日03時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域マリアナ諸島
中心位置北緯 13度35分(13.6度)
東経 147度10分(147.2度)
進行方向、速さ西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<17日03時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心北緯 14度25分(14.4度)
東経 142度35分(142.6度)
進行方向、速さ西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 220km(120NM)

krichard2011 · 2013-10-16 10:05

螺旋性相當好
目前當附近的風切有逐漸減弱的趨勢
JTWC最新一報上看105kts
前景非常看好

ben811018 · 2013-10-16 10:11

接下來大概就是北方系統主導一切～
副高要疲弱一陣子了～

t02436 · 2013-10-16 17:14

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2013-10-16 17:15 編輯

環流看起來蠻猛的

估計今晚到明早就會命名
隱約看見中心正在建構中

周圍無乾空氣干擾問題
風切轉弱
幅散外掛50

依舊預測是日本貨
如果現在26W沒有順利把東邊雲系吃進來
那坨又被NCEP列為高機率成颱區
日本就要連吃三隻了.....

krichard2011 · 2013-10-16 19:18

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2013-10-16 19:19 編輯

不得不說這底層還挺優的
CDO也在建立當中了
螺旋性非常明顯
環境也明顯改善
垂直風切已經逐漸減弱加上周圍水氣豐沛
幅散與幅合相當良好最大直均達到50
如果順利爆發強度可能不只C3
順利的話今晚到明天早上就有機會命名了...