888894

TCFA!!!
WTPN23 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.7N 147.8E TO 10.7N 141.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 151932Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 146.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3N
148.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 146.5E, APPROXIMATELY 107 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 151633Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS PERSISTENT CONVECTION THAT HAS DEEPENED WITH A SLIGHT
CURVATURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 151152Z ASCAT PASS
DEPICTED A 20 KNOT ELONGATED CIRCULATION LOCATED SLIGHTLY NORHEAST
OF GUAM. 161958Z OBSERVATIONS IN GUAM HAVE INDICATED PRESSURES
DROPPING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS TO 1005.8 HPA WITH 20-24 KNOT WINDS.
THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO
THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
162100Z.
//
NNNN

t02436

已評Medium!

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 151.1E, IS NOW LOCATED 385 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING NEAR A LOWLEVEL WAVE EVIDENT IN A 142020Z TRMM IMAGE. THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, AN ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALOFT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, RELAXING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE UPPERLEVEL OUTFLOW. MULTIPLE NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.