krichard2011

Final Warning!對流也散得差不多了
擾動應該會安靜一陣子了

krichard2011

JTWC再度升格TS 不過強度看衰 預測TS下限

t02436

IMD下午一報仍認為是一低壓區
報文中未提及命名一事
看來命名HELEN機會甚低

frintezza

行走60個經度(>6600公里)之後, 終於被JTWC升格TS (35 kts)...

jwpk9899

IMD終於給他個BOB5了...

Time of issue: 1930 hours IST Dated: 13-11-2013
Bulletin No.: BOB05/2013/04
Sub: Depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal.
The depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved slowly westward at a speed of 5 km per hour and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 13thth November 2013 near latitude 11.50N and longitude 85.50E, about 600 km east-southeast of Chennai, 680 km east-southeast of Nellore and 620 km east-northeast of Nagapattinam The system would move slowly westwards for some more time and then west-northwestwards, intensify into a deep depression and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai by 16thth November 2013 evening.

桜slime

martin191919 發表於 2013-11-13 22:02
JTWC：TCFA
WTIO22 PGTW 131300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

這個位置才TCFA:L
如果跟現在南海那個一樣,
搞十年都不能升TS的話,
進入阿拉伯海也不是不可能的事;P
是要吹襲非州嗎?
(這快要環繞地球半周了:lol)

martin191919

JTWC：TCFA
WTIO22 PGTW 131300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5N 85.3E TO 10.8N 80.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 131230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.4N 84.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
   THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 85.9E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 84.5E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS NEW FORMATIVE BANDS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTORS. ADDITIONALLY, THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED, AS EVIDENCED
ON A 130906Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, THE VWS IS EASILY OFFSET BY
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW THAT HAS A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. THE DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE SLOW, CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
141300Z.  //
NNNN

Meow

版主不要只看 NRL 就判定擾動有無存在。最近 NRL 常常出問題，有時部份擾動不會出現在網站上，最好搭配 FNMOC 評斷。