krichard2011

JTWC已經發布TCFA了

整體的螺旋性與對流狀態
相較昨天也已經有大幅改善
JMA也升格TD了
雖然種體看起來滿有氣勢的
不過環流龐大還需要整合一下 才有進一步增強的機會

REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.0N
159.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 158.6E, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING FORMATIVE BANDS. A RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS
INDICATED 20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC AND
WEAKER WINDS NEAR THE CORE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG
EQUATORWARD CHANNEL. SSTS IN THE AREA ARE PERENNIALLY WARM (28 TO 30
DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.  
DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

krichard2011

JTWC Medium已發~~
螺旋性比昨天還要明顯了
未來前景應該不錯

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.4N
161.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 158.6E, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A BROAD LLCC WITH RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING FORMATIVE BANDS.  
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH IN AN AREA OF LOW VWS AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW
WITH A STRONG EQUATORWARD CHANNEL. SSTS IN THE AREA ARE PERENNIALLY
WARM (28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. IN VIEW OF THE IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

krichard2011

JTWC評級Low了
不過結構稍嫌鬆散仍待整合

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.4N 161.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 228 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BROKEN, BUT IMPROVING, CENTRAL
CONVECTION. A 020106Z TRMM 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS WEAK
CURVATURE IN THE CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FORM, BUT OVERALL POOR LOW-
LEVEL ORGANIZATION. A RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATED AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 10-15 KNOT WIND BARBS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS FAIR OUTFLOW IS BEING
OFFSET BY LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE (28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS)
FOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-
ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.