33W 發展不佳嚴重裸奔FW已發

t02436 · 2013-12-2 22:26

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-8-27 16:53 編輯

  基本資料
編號　　　　：33 W
擾動編號日期：2013  年 12 月02 日 22 時
　消散日期　　：2013  年 12 月05 日 00 時
　登陸地點       : 暫無
94W.INVEST-15kts-1010mb-14.2N-138.4E

krichard2011 · 2013-12-4 12:30

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2013-12-4 12:33 編輯

這一報JTWC直接判死
已無緣挑戰TS...
就連JMA也把TD撤掉了

krichard2011 · 2013-12-4 09:44

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2013-12-4 09:44 編輯

LLCC完全裸露
看來這隻要升格機會相當渺茫...

t02436 · 2013-12-3 22:48

跳過TCFA直升33W
稍早風場LLCC明顯
中心風力出現紅旗
幅散30幅合15
唯獨風切偏強

JMA維持TD
GW尚未發出

sh991016 · 2013-12-3 22:38

老J預測明早強度將來到35kts 輕颱下限，究竟有沒有機會成為玲玲呢?讓我們繼續看下去....

martin191919 · 2013-12-3 22:24

33W

WTPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTY-THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 15.7N 138.7E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 138.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.7N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.5N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.3N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 138.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTY-THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
369 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z,
040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.//
NNNN

toby · 2013-12-3 14:56

不知道它的發展條件如何？但它擁有完整的螺旋雲帶，因該有機會發展成為颱風吧!

krichard2011 · 2013-12-3 12:24

悄悄的JTWC已經評級這個小傢伙為Medium

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.8N 138.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 360 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
THAT IS BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AT 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT DEVELOPING THIS
SYSTEM, BUT DUE TO THE DEFINED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.