01E.Amanda 歷年來五月最強颶風!

krichard2011 · 2014-5-24 20:57

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-5-24 21:00 編輯

從色調強化為星雲圖來看
看得出來高層眼已經若隱若現了
在過幾個小時風眼應該就會正式開啟了
似乎有可能是個針眼
CDO相當扎實待開眼後強度可望上衝

使用BD雲圖更清楚...

krichard2011 · 2014-5-24 17:20

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-5-24 17:26 編輯

難得首旋就有這麼好的型態
CDO相當完整等到風眼開啟後強度應該還會往上衝
NHC現在已經給到55kt後期上看90kt
環境方面除了緯度較低垂直風切也相當微弱
水氣供應上也應該不成問題短時間移動速度較慢
整體環境方面相當不錯應該有不小發展空間

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 11.4N 109.6W 55 KT  65 MPH
12H  24/1800Z 11.7N 110.3W 65 KT  75 MPH
24H  25/0600Z 11.9N 110.9W 80 KT  90 MPH
36H  25/1800Z 12.2N 111.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H  26/0600Z 12.7N 111.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H  27/0600Z 14.0N 112.0W 75 KT  85 MPH
96H  28/0600Z 15.5N 112.0W 60 KT  70 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 17.5N 112.0W 45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

krichard2011 · 2014-5-24 11:35

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-5-24 11:37 編輯

來看一下最新的底層掃瞄...
底層風眼已經開始建立起來了
強度上衝至50kt
未來強度應該不弱
NHC上看C2 強度值得觀察

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 11.2N 109.1W 50 KT  60 MPH
12H  24/1200Z 11.4N 109.7W 60 KT  70 MPH
24H  25/0000Z 11.7N 110.6W 75 KT  85 MPH
36H  25/1200Z 11.9N 111.1W 80 KT  90 MPH
48H  26/0000Z 12.2N 111.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H  27/0000Z 13.2N 111.7W 75 KT  85 MPH
96H  28/0000Z 15.0N 112.0W 65 KT  75 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 17.0N 112.0W 55 KT  65 MPH

krichard2011 · 2014-5-24 00:24

底層看起來已經有在建立的跡象了
整體樣子也很不錯
GFS數值預測未來的強度也不弱
不過預測後期會在墨西哥近海減弱消散...

t02436 · 2014-5-23 23:00

NHC15Z命名
東太首旋正式誕生上望65Kts

後期有機會回馬槍?!

TROPICAL STORM AMANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL    EP012014
1500 UTC FRI MAY 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 108.4W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 108.4W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 108.3W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 11.1N 108.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 11.5N 109.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 11.7N 110.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 11.9N 110.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE 0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 12.5N 111.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 13.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 15.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.