krichard2011

JTWC 升格 22W
一大早 型態就非常的不錯
發展前景相當看好

Meow

雖然剛才還分析到 T2.0，JTWC 只發佈了 TCFA，因為認定底層風速還沒跟上中高層發展。



WTPN21 PGTW 301930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.5N 155.0E TO 6.6N 148.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 3.7N 154.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.7N
155.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.7N 154.7E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 301649Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THE
PREVIOUS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO A DEFINED
CENTER THAT IS SPINNING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE MOST RECENT
(300600Z) SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM NUKUORO ATOLL, CAROLINE IS.
REFLECT A WEAK, SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS AND SLP
OF 1004 MB. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH THE SYSTEM
LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE AND LOW (5 TO 10 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE INDICATING RAPID
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AGENCIES MAY BE SLIGHTLY EXAGGERATED DUE TO
THE MORE INTENSE CIRCULATION IN THE UPPER AND MID-LEVELS THAN IS
BEING REPRESENTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AS SUCH, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011930Z.//
NNNN

t02436

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 301930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.5N 155.0E TO 6.6N 148.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 3.7N 154.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.7N
155.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.7N 154.7E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 301649Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THE
PREVIOUS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO A DEFINED
CENTER THAT IS SPINNING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE MOST RECENT
(300600Z) SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM NUKUORO ATOLL, CAROLINE IS.
REFLECT A WEAK, SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS AND SLP
OF 1004 MB. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH THE SYSTEM
LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE AND LOW (5 TO 10 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE INDICATING RAPID
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AGENCIES MAY BE SLIGHTLY EXAGGERATED DUE TO
THE MORE INTENSE CIRCULATION IN THE UPPER AND MID-LEVELS THAN IS
BEING REPRESENTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AS SUCH, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011930Z.//
NNNN

Meow

更清楚的掃描出來了，看起來好像風眼。:lol

krichard2011

現在這個樣子在發展方面應該算是個非常不錯的開始
儘管解析度稍差 但隱約看的出來正在建立底層
而且幾乎相當完整 不排除有機會發佈TCFA 或 GW

Meow

看來這本來是 SPCZ 的一部分，在赤道北側形成 95W 以後 SPCZ 就被拉到北半球了。



JTWC 分析 T1.5，預告升格熱低近在咫尺。

TPPN11 PGTW 301506

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W (SSW OF POHNPEI)

B. 30/1432Z

C. 2.90N

D. 155.40E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .30 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   30/1052Z  2.60N  156.13E  MMHS


   UEHARA

t02436

JTWC升評Medium

  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.5N 157.5E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.7N 155.8E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTHEAST OF
CHUUK. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG MID-LEVEL
TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 301052Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REFLECT
A WEAK, SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH 05 TO 10 KNOT WINDS AND SLP NEAR
1003 MB. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH THE SYSTEM
LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE INDICATING RAPID DEVELOPMENT AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

型態非常不錯
底層也有在建立的趨勢




JTWC分析T1.5

TPPN11 PGTW 301210
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W (SSW OF POHNPEI)
B. 30/1132Z
C. 2.67N
D. 155.76E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .30 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
30/0739Z 2.28N 157.02E SSMS
30/0817Z 2.38N 156.52E SSMS
30/0909Z 2.58N 156.15E SSMS
UEHARA

t02436

JTWC評級Low

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.5N 157.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A
292241Z GMI 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES NO EVIDENCE OF A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND SHOWS DISORGANIZED, FRAGMENTED
BANDING. A 292301Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE DEPICTS MONSOON TROUGHING
WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW CONVERGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE TROUGH, WHICH IS FUELING THE CONVECTIVE BANDING. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SLP NEAR 1004 TO 1006 MB. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE WITH THE SYSTEM LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT
SOURCE AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, THE DYNAMIC MODELS
ARE INDICATING RAPID DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

GFS 11/30 00Z