17P.Pam 南太平洋論風速之新風王幾乎癱瘓萬那杜全國

krichard2011 · 2015-3-12 21:13

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2015-3-12 21:27 編輯

斐濟瘋狂了升格五級強烈熱帶氣旋
且更是上看 130KT 如成真
如成真將成為斐濟評價史上最強之一?

HURRICANE WARNING 027 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 12/1306 UTC 2015 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE 921HPA CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2 SOUTH
169.8 EAST AT 121200 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 14.2S 169.8E AT 121200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 08 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 130 KNOTS
BY 131200 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS
WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                     AND WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                     AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                     AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.9S 169.4E AT 130000 UTC
            AND NEAR 18.0S 169.5E AT 131200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 026.

krichard2011 · 2015-3-12 20:43

JTWC 給T值7.0了
稍後強度135KT以上機會應該不小

TPPS10 PGTW 121222

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM)

B. 12/1132Z

C. 14.15S

D. 169.91E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0. MET AND PT YIELD A 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
12/0637Z  13.40S  170.07E  WIND
12/0706Z  13.60S  170.12E  SSMS
12/0733Z  13.57S  170.03E  SSMS
12/0819Z  13.75S  169.95E  SSMS

BERMEA

蜜露 · 2015-3-12 19:16

東側的眼牆太薄了. 但已經比昨日好多了..風眼也縮小了

如果東側補好,才有機會達到7.5級別的熱帶氣旋

3952 · 2015-3-12 18:10

四旋共舞，時隔多年再現。

zjk369 · 2015-3-12 17:55

真的好美呀

krichard2011 · 2015-3-12 14:13

眼牆與CDO鞏固完成
強度應該有機會大幅提升
底層這樣子長得還有點像甜甜圈
不過維持結構的能力應該相對較穩定

t02436 · 2015-3-12 12:30

JTWC調降預測巔峰到140Kts
FMS預測24小時內達到顛峰

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A20 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 12/0145 UTC 2015 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE 935HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR
12.5S 170.2E AT 120000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 2
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 100 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES IN NORTHEAST
QUADRANT,
                     AND WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES IN NORTHWEST
QUADRANT,
                     AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.


ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PESISTENT. SYSTEM
LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 300HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. PAM IS
BEING STEERED SOUTHWARDS BY A NORTHERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH DG EYE EMBD IN W, YIELDS DT=6.0,
MET AND PAT AGREE. THUS YIELDING T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 14.1S 170.0E MOV S AT 08KT WITH 110 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 15.9S 169.7E MOV S AT 09KT WITH 115 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 18.1S 169.8E MOV S AT 09KT WITH 95 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 21.1S 170.9E MOV S AT 11KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 120800 UTC.