簽到天數: 3280 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2015-3-10 13:56
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JTWC直接評級Medium
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.0S 115.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTHWEST OF ROWLEY SHOALS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH
FLARING CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM
AND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
100209Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND A 100124 ASCAT SHOWS CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH
WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE
IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA BEYOND TAU 56. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
BoM上望澳式C2
準18U即將誕生
展望報文
IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 1:29 pm WST on Tuesday 10 March 2015
for the period until midnight WST Friday 13 March 2015.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone Advices are current for a developing tropical low off the
Pilbara coast. At 11am WST Tuesday a developing tropical low was located around
760 kilometres north of Karratha, 900 kilometres north of Exmouth. Please refer
to the latest Advice or Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Map for further
details. www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday High
Thursday High
Friday High
There are no other significant lows in the Western Region and none are expected
within the next three days.
NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Moderate: 20 to 50%
Low: 5% to 20% High: over 50%
The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.
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