22S.Joalane 漸入高緯逐漸轉化中

t02436 · 2015-3-27 18:33

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-4-17 00:05 編輯

  熱帶氣旋
編號：13-20142015 ( 22 S )
名稱：Joalane

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2015 年 03 月 27 日 18 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 04 月 07 日 02 時
撤編日期　　：2015 年 04 月 14 日 15 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料
近中心最強風速 /海平面最低氣壓
法國氣象局 (MFR)：80 kt
美國海軍 (JTWC)  ：90 kt ( CAT.2 )
海平面最低氣壓　：970 百帕

討論帖圖片
91S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.15S.75E

以上資料來自：MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436 · 2015-4-12 10:44

MFR 00Z報認定Joalane已經轉化

ZCZC 961
WTIO30 FMEE 120017
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/13/20142015
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 (EX-JOALANE)
2.A POSITION 2015/04/12 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.7 S / 67.9 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN
DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 15 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :74 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 520 SW: 520 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 290 SE: 410 SW: 410 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 160 SE: 210 SW: 210 NW: 160
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/04/12 12 UTC: 27.1 S / 67.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2015/04/13 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 66.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2015/04/13 12 UTC: 29.7 S / 65.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2015/04/14 00 UTC: 31.7 S / 66.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/04/14 12 UTC: 34.1 S / 68.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
72H: 2015/04/15 00 UTC: 35.2 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/04/16 00 UTC: 36.4 S / 74.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2015/04/17 00 UTC: 37.0 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
SUCCESSIVE AMSU-A CROSS-SECTIONS N15 AT 0041Z, N19 AT 0946Z AND N18
AT 1239Z REVEAL THAT JOALANE'S WARM CORE ANOMALY IS PROGRESSIVELY
ELONGATING DOWNWARDS.
INTERACTING WITH THE WESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET AND OVER MARGINAL
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT (SST AT ABOUT 25/26 DG), SYSTEM BEGINS TO EVOLVE
ONTO AN HYBRID POST-TROPICAL STRUCTURE AND EXPERIENCING A
STRENGTHENING VWS, DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN REJECTED IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
THIS STRUCTURE CHANGE GENERATES A DILATATION OF THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM
WINDS.
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WINDS EXTENSION HAS BEEN RECALIBRATED THANKS TO
1752Z ASCAT SWATH.
WITHIN A MORE AND MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, JOALANE IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP ON LOSING ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BUT THE SYSTEM IS
HOWEVER EXPECTED TO REMAIN POWERFUL AS STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD LAST
FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
THE END OF THE EXTRATROP PROCESS IS ONLY FORECAST FROM THURSDAY 14 AS
THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LAT
WESTERLIES.
BEFORE THAT TIME, THE POLEWARDS TRACK OF JOALANE WILL BE TEMPORARILY
LIMITED ON MONDAY BY A BUILDING BUT TRANSIENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.=
NNNN

krichard2011 · 2015-4-11 16:15

Joalane 不甘示弱硬是轉出了一個大大的風眼
強度重回TC 不過後期仍預測將逐漸減弱...

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/13/20142015
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOALANE)
2.A POSITION 2015/04/11 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1 S / 67.7 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 350 SW: 280 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 190 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 160 SW: 120 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/04/11 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2015/04/12 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2015/04/12 18 UTC: 26.8 S / 66.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/04/13 06 UTC: 28.0 S / 65.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/04/13 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 65.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/04/14 06 UTC: 31.1 S / 67.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/04/15 06 UTC: 34.4 S / 71.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2015/04/16 06 UTC: 35.4 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

蜜露 · 2015-4-10 14:01

底層眼再度建立中. . . 但發展時間估計不多了.

要達到比之前強,還是不太容易的..

Meow · 2015-4-9 21:03

降格 STS（979hPa 60kt），Joalane 淪為恥笑對象。

krichard2011 · 2015-4-9 12:24

目前看起來乾空氣的影響相當嚴重
底層對流受損嚴重因此最近幾暴MFR調弱了 Joalane的強度
並不再上望ITC 但就算如此 MFR 仍認為能達到二次巔峰 80 KT

WTIO30 FMEE 090020
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/13/20142015
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOALANE)
2.A POSITION 2015/04/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 65.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 460 SW: 200 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 200 SW: 170 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/04/09 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 65.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2015/04/10 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2015/04/10 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2015/04/11 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 68.7 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2015/04/11 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 69.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2015/04/12 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 69.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/04/13 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 70.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2015/04/14 00 UTC: 30.8 S / 72.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0 AND CI=4.5-

Meow · 2015-4-8 21:31

Aqua 拍攝的 Joalane

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wi ... 015-04-08_0930Z.jpg

t02436 · 2015-4-8 20:53

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-4-9 00:03 編輯

JTWC 0407-18Z UTC報上望過140Kts
0408-03Z UTC報降為120Kts

MFR 持續上望強烈熱帶氣旋

ZCZC 890
WTIO30 FMEE 081231
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/13/20142015
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  13  (JOALANE)
2.A POSITION 2015/04/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 64.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 460 SW: 200 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 200 SW: 170 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 90 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 2000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/04/09 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 65.2 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2015/04/09 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 65.6 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2015/04/10 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 66.2 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2015/04/10 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 67.4 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2015/04/11 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 68.5 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2015/04/11 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 69.0 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/04/12 12 UTC: 28.4 S / 69.0 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2015/04/13 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 68.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5 AND CI=4.5+
JOALANE HAS RESTARTED A ESATERN, THEN SOUTHEASTERN MOTION. AN EYE IS
AGAIN VISIBLE ON CLASSICAL IMAGERY, AND LAST MICRO-WAVES DATA OF
10H36Z SHOW AN ISOLATED CDO SURROUNDED BY A FRAGMENTED NEW BAND WHICH
SEEM TO  CLOSE INTO A SECONDARY WALL
AFTER THE WEAKENING OF LAST NIGHT, THE SYSTEM WHICH HAS TROUBLE FOR
THE MOMENT TO RE-INTENSIFY, DESPITE OF  VERY FAVOURABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, SHOULD AS IT GOES ON ITS MOTION A GOOD
SPEED FIND AN AREA OF FAVOURABLE ENERGETICAL POTENTIAL.
AS SOUTHWARD MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS GOING TO DISSIPATE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
THEREFORE SHIFT SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS BACK TOWARDS A COL.
A NEW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS REBUILDING IN ITS SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY
AND SHOULD STEERED JOALANE SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS.
BACK IN MOTION, JOALANE IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY.
ATMOSPHERICS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP FAVOURABLE UNTIL
FRIDAY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH WEAK VWS AND AN UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL POLEWARD.
FROM FRIDAY LATE OR SATURDAY EARLY, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
IT EXPERIENCES THE DOUBLE CONSTRAINTS OF STRENGTHENING
NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND MARGINAL HEAT OCEANIC CONTENT
SOUTH OF 21S.
LAST DETERMINISTIC'S NWP MODELS (ECMWF, GFS, UKMO) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS SCENARIO.
JOALANE KEEPS HOWEVER ON REPRESENTING A THREAT FOR RODRIGUES ISLAND.=
NNNN