21S.Ikola 風切干擾轉化溫帶氣旋

t02436 · 2015-4-2 10:44

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-4-8 20:56 編輯

  熱帶氣旋│ 四級強烈熱帶氣旋
編號：14-20142015 ( 21 S / 19 U)
名稱：Ikola

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2015 年 04 月 02 日 06 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 04 月 06 日 02 時
轉化日期　　：2015 年 04 月 08 日 14 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料
近中心最強風速 /海平面最低氣壓
法國氣象局 (MFR)： 70  kt ( T.C. )
澳洲氣象局 (BoM)： 90  kt ( CAT.4 )-註:2015.04.06 18Z UTC轉交BoM發報
美國海軍 (JTWC)  ：105 kt ( CAT.3 )
海平面最低氣壓　：958 百帕

討論帖圖片
93S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.12.2S.87E

以上資料來自：MFR、BoM、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436 · 2015-4-8 20:36

進入強風切區
系統切離 06Z判定轉化

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ikola at 2:00 pm WST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 75 kilometres of 22.0 degrees South, 99.0 degrees East , 1120 kilometres south southeast of Cocos Island .
Movement: east southeast at 30 kilometres per hour .

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ikola continues to move over open water well to the south of the Cocos Islands. The system is no longer a tropical cyclone due to the lack of a warm core and vertical structure. Gales may persist around the system for the next 24 hours (refer to Ocean Wind Warning for more details at www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings/). Rainfall is also expected to increase over southwestern parts of Western Australia towards the end of the week.

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0623 UTC 08/04/2015
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ikola
Identifier: 19U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 22.0S
Longitude: 99.0E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [124 deg]
Speed of Movement: 16 knots [30 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code:
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees    :    nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  08/1200: 23.1S 100.6E:    050 [095]:  030  [055]: 1002
+12:  08/1800: 24.3S 102.2E:    065 [120]:  030  [055]: 1002
+18:  09/0000: 25.4S 103.8E:    075 [140]:  030  [055]: 1001
+24:  09/0600: 26.6S 105.5E:    090 [165]:  030  [055]: 1000
+36:  09/1800: 29.1S 108.5E:    110 [200]:  030  [055]:  999
+48:  10/0600: 31.4S 110.5E:    130 [235]:  030  [055]:  997
+60:  10/1800: 32.4S 111.8E:    150 [275]:  030  [055]:  996
+72:  11/0600: 33.5S 113.5E:    165 [310]:  030  [055]:  995
+96:  12/0600: 35.6S 117.4E:    210 [390]:  030  [055]:  994
+120: 13/0600:          :             :          :
REMARKS:
TC Ikola has lost its tropical characteristics. An Ascat pass at 0306Z showed
that although the system has more of a trough-like structure now, gales were
still evident in the eastern quadrants. The ECMWF model maintains gales with
this trough for the next 12 to 24 hours.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.

Meow · 2015-4-7 02:50

BoM 評價 80 節、968 百帕的三級強烈熱帶氣旋，Ikola 是 2010 年 Abele 以來 BoM 轄區首個由模里西斯命名的熱帶氣旋，預測強度很快減弱。

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1833 UTC 06/04/2015
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ikola
Identifier: 19U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 16.0S
Longitude: 91.0E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [148 deg]
Speed of Movement: 13 knots [24 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Central Pressure: 968 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 35 nm [65 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0 D2.5/24HRS STT:0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm [260 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees    :    nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  07/0000: 16.9S  91.9E:    030 [060]:  070  [130]:  975
+12:  07/0600: 18.0S  92.7E:    045 [080]:  060  [110]:  983
+18:  07/1200: 19.1S  93.7E:    055 [105]:  045  [085]:  992
+24:  07/1800: 20.1S  94.7E:    070 [130]:  035  [065]:  999
+36:  08/0600: 22.2S  97.2E:    090 [165]:  030  [055]: 1001
+48:  08/1800: 24.1S  99.7E:    110 [200]:  030  [055]: 1000
+60:  09/0600: 25.6S 102.3E:    130 [235]:  025  [045]: 1002
+72:  09/1800: 27.7S 105.1E:    145 [270]:  020  [035]: 1005
+96:  10/1800:          :             :          :
+120: 11/1800:          :             :          :
REMARKS:
Severe TC Ikola has had an eye evident on satellite imagery for the past 12
hours assisting location and intensity analysis. La Reunion RSMC which had
previously been monitoring Ikola rated the system at 65kn at 12Z today, after
naming the TC at 18Z on the 5th. This is less than SATCON analysis at 12Z which
rated the system at 86kn [1-min mean]. The latest IR image [1730Z] shows an
eye-pattern with a white surround though this has been fluctuating so intensity
has been based on a 3hr average giving DT of 5.0. PT=5.0=FT=CI. Intensity rated
at 80 knots [10-min mean]. SATCON gives intensity of 100kn [1-min mean] at
1319Z.

The system intensified at greater than the standard rate for the last 24 hours,
despite shear increasing significantly in the last few hours. At 00Z this
morning CiMMS indicated a low-shear environment [6 knots], with deep-layer
moisture and plentiful ocean heat for further development. At 06Z CiMMS
indicated shear had increased to 18 knots and Ikola's southwest track will see
it encounter increasing shear as it moves away from a mid-level trough axis and
encounters a stronger NW stream. NWP is in good agreement as to the track of
Ikola and forecasting a further short-term increase in intensity ahead of a
rapid weakening in the 12-24 hour period as shear becomes untenable for the
system and SST become unfavourable.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 07/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.

蜜露 · 2015-4-6 23:02

底層大致完成. 厚度驚人,北側小缺角應該會補上..

所處低風切..正好這時有機會猛爆增強. 估計和梅莎一樣,可能是個中眼型的熱帶氣旋

t02436 · 2015-4-6 21:24

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-4-6 21:33 編輯

MFR 12Z 給出70KT評價
升格熱帶氣旋
18Z 轉交BoM發報

** WTIO30 FMEE 061306 ***

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/14/20142015
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (IKOLA)

2.A POSITION 2015/04/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 90.5 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 300 SW: 240 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 190 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/04/07 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 91.8 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2015/04/07 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 93.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/04/08 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 94.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/04/08 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 95.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/04/09 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 97.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, LOW
72H: 2015/04/09 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 97.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5

DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS, IKOLA CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY, WITH AN
ELONGATED EYE PATTERN. THE LAST MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW
A STOP IN THIS RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND.

THE SYSTEM IS JUST NORTH OF A MID TO HIGH LEVELS TROUGH, AND IS
TRACKING SOUTH-EASTWARD WHILE ACCELERATING SLIGHTLY.
THE FAVORABLE PERIOD IS ENDING. ACTUALLY, THE UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR
IS STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONNED TROUGH. THE SYSTEM HAS
PROBABLY REACHED ITS PEAK OF INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON.
IT IS FORECAST TO KEEP ON A SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK.
OVER THIS PATH, THE VWS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND IKOLA SHOULD
WEAKEN GRADUALLY.

LAST WARNING ISSUED BY THE RSMC REUNION FOR THIS SYSTEM.
NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY THE TCWC PERTH.=