zjk369

時間越久 調得越低

ben811018

環流還是比較鬆散一些
白海豚要再等等

shadow16

JMA: TD , JTWC: TCFA



TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 04N 157E WEST SLOWLY.       


WTPN21 PGTW 060930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 250 NM RADIUS OF 4.4N 158.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 060600Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 158.8E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.5N
158.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 158.8E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 060328 AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS BROKEN CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-
20 KNOT) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY RADIAL
OUTFLOW DUE TO A POINT SOURCE ANALYZED OVER THE DISTURBANCE AND
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE AND RADIAL OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
070930Z.
//
NNNN       

t02436

JTWC發佈TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 060930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 250 NM RADIUS OF 4.4N 158.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 060600Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 158.8E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.5N
158.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 158.8E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 060328 AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS BROKEN CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-
20 KNOT) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY RADIAL
OUTFLOW DUE TO A POINT SOURCE ANALYZED OVER THE DISTURBANCE AND
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE AND RADIAL OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
070930Z.
//
NNNN

krichard2011

下面這張圖可已知道 GFS 的理智線徹底斷了 = =
這是五月該有的貨色嗎 而且這個緯度......還能增強到這樣? @@

這如果成真
這颱風應該難逃被除名的命運了


這季節緯度21點多 居然能挑戰8字頭?

t02436

JTWC升評Medium

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.5N 156.3E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.1N 156.7E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTHWEST OF
POHNPEI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BETTER
CONSOLIDATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AND ILL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 051120Z SCATTEROMETER
PASS FURTHER SHOWED THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE LLCC; HOWEVER, 15 TO
20 KNOT WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIVERGENT
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE DISTURBANCE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

風場掃描

980256

日本氣象廳預測93w熱帶擾動有機會在48小時後增強為熱帶性低氣壓。

krichard2011

一隻挑戰今年風王的白海豚?
除了上一層樓的902百帕
GFS更預測在這個緯度氣壓降到 901 百帕
現在才五月耶... @@