簽到天數: 3280 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2015-5-30 23:19
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NHC 15Z報評價90節
升格二級颶風
預估明日00Z達到巔峰
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 301435
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
800 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015
Andres has strengthened a little more this morning. The cloud
pattern has become better organized with the eye of the hurricane
intermittently appearing in satellite images. Recent microwave
data show a well-defined eyewall, but most of the banding features
are concentrated on the east side of the circulation, likely due to
northwesterly shear. The initial intensity is raised to 90 kt, in
agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, making
Andres a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale.
The hurricane still has about another day over warm water and the
SHIPS model lowers the current shear during that time. Therefore,
some additional short-term strengthening is possible even though
none of the models suggest intensification. After that time,
however, Andres is expected to move over progressively cooler
water and into a more stable airmass. These unfavorable conditions
should promote a steady weakening trend. The official forecast is
a little higher than the previous one during the next 36 hours to
account for the higher initial intensity.
Andres is moving northwestward at about 6 kt toward a weakness in
the subtropical ridge. A turn to the west-northwest is expected to
occur tonight or on Sunday when the ridge builds to the north
of the hurricane, and that general motion should continue for the
remainder of the forecast period. Little change was made to the
previous forecast track, and it lies close to the middle of the
guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/1500Z 14.5N 115.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 15.1N 116.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 15.8N 118.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 16.3N 119.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 16.8N 120.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 18.2N 123.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 19.1N 127.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 19.2N 129.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
西側有乾空氣干擾
風眼西側極為薄弱
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