開梅

是為今年西太平洋地區第27個颱風，但總數離氣象局說的30個還有段距離，去年氣象局預測有30個，失準了，今年也是預測0有30個

s6815711

96W正式升格 2015年月月有颱風紀錄達成

蜜露

昨日可說是相當成功的進展 , 現在渦度已經泛紅.
JMA已經發GW了 (發展颱風趨勢)
最近風場掃描沒掃到. 要等下報.



前方風切有20kt以上. 且有增強趨勢. 希望發展不要受太大影響
爭取命名達成一項紀錄也好.




未來路徑會非常奇妙

t02436

JTWC提升評級至Medium

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4N
144.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 140.8E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 101229Z ASCAT PASS
AND A 101546Z RSCAT PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AREA OF STRONG WESTWARD UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE ASCAT AND
RSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT STRONGER WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE DEVELOPING LLCC, WITH MUCH LIGHTER
10-15 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES.
HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LLCC
WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
BASED ON PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSERVED ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AND GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

t02436

JMA發布GW

熱帯低気圧
平成27年12月10日22時05分 発表

<10日21時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        カロリン諸島
中心位置        北緯 6度55分(6.9度)
東経 142度50分(142.8度)
進行方向、速さ        西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<11日09時の予報>
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        カロリン諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 8度20分(8.3度)
東経 140度20分(140.3度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径        90km(50NM)

<11日21時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        カロリン諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 9度40分(9.7度)
東経 137度50分(137.8度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        220km(120NM)

t02436

JTWC終於評級Low...

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.4N 144.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING CONVECTION BUILDING OVER AN AREA OF REVERSE-
ORIENTED TROUGHING. A RECENT 092344Z ASCAT PASS SUPPORTS WIND SPEEDS
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITHIN THE TROUGH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE AT 29 TO 30 CELSIUS, PROVIDING SUPPORT TO FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED WITHIN AN AXIS OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH A RECENT
SURGE OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRACKS TO THE
NORTH OF THE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVING DEEP CONVECTION WITH FAVORABLE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

typhoonman

96W還在朝西穩定行進，可能要等高壓東移後才會有較明顯的北移。