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陳約禮@FB|2016-1-7 13:24
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WTPN21 PHNC 062030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.0N 171.4W TO 7.2N 172.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 3.3N 171.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.3N 171.4W,
APPROXIMATELY 808 NM SOUTH OF JOHNSTON ATOLL. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061747Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY
DATA INDICATE 20 KNOT WINDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SYSTEM WITH
ISOLATED 25 KNOT OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH MODERATE-STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASING
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
072030Z.//
NNNN
JTWC於1/6 2030Z發布TCFA
螺旋型態看來還不錯
螺旋型態看來還不錯
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