t02436

JTWC評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.1N 85.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 280559Z GCOM 89GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A RECENT 280345Z PARTIAL
ASCAT PASS ALSO INDICATED THE FORMATION OF THE LLCC WITH 15 TO 20
KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WITHIN CONVECTION. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE OFFSET BY STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST INDIAN COASTLINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.