t02436

NHC升格06E

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 151458
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
900 AM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016

The eastern North Pacific July tropical cyclone outbreak continues.
Visible satellite and overnight ASCAT data indicate that the large
low pressure area located southwest of the coast of Mexico has
acquired a well-defined circulation and enough convective banding
to classify the system as a tropical cyclone.  This marks the fifth
tropical cyclone formation in the eastern Pacific this month.  The
earlier ASCAT data showed maximum winds of 25 to 30 kt, and this is
the basis for the initial wind speed of 30 kt. The depression is
forecast to remain over warm water and in a low-shear environment
during the next few days, but the large size and current lack of
inner-core convection will likely result in only gradual
strengthening through tonight. After that time, steady strengthening
is forecast, and the cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm
by early Saturday, and reach hurricane strength in a couple of days.
After that time, the system is expected to move over water that has
been cooled by the previous couple of hurricanes, and only a little
additional intensification is predicted. The NHC intensity forecast
is a little lower than the SHIPS guidance, and follows the
multi-model intensity consensus closely.

The initial motion of the depression is a somewhat uncertain 290/7
kt.  A climatological west-northwestward heading is forecast through
the entire forecast period, to the south of a strong mid- to
upper-level ridge extending westward from northern Mexico.  The
track guidance is in very good agreement, and the NHC forecast is
near the middle of the model envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 14.0N 106.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  16/0000Z 14.8N 107.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  16/1200Z 15.2N 109.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  17/0000Z 15.6N 111.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  17/1200Z 15.9N 112.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  18/1200Z 16.8N 116.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  19/1200Z 17.8N 119.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  20/1200Z 18.5N 123.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown