KINGRIC

  熱帶風暴  
編號：02 E
名稱：Agatha


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2016 年 07 月 02 日 01 時
命名日期　　：2016 年 07 月 02 日 23 時
撤編日期　　：2016 年 07 月 09 日 00 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：40  kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓 ：1003 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
95E.INVEST.25kts.1008mb.13.5N.115W

---

定位錯誤成94E
95E.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-11.0N-103.5W


NHC:40%

2. Satellite imagery this morning indicates that the circulation
associated with the low pressure area several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to become better defined.  However, the associated shower
activity is currently poorly organized.  Some additional development
of this system is possible during the next couple days as it moves
generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  After that time,
environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

asus5635

發布TCFA了

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8N 115.6W TO 16.9N 120.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011702Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.1N 116.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.

t02436

NHC火速升格02E，預計24小時內命名，但不看好發展。

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 020232
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022016
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 01 2016

ASCAT data from earlier today indicated that the low pressure area
several hundred miles southwest of the Baja California peninsula had
developed a well-defined circulation.  Deep convection, although
currently sheared to the west of the low-level center, has become
more organized throughout the day, and TAFB and SAB have both given
the system classifications of T1.5.  Advisories are being initiated
on a new tropical depression, with the 25-kt initial intensity based
on the Dvorak estimates and ASCAT data.

The depression is moving west-northwestward, or 300/8 kt, to the
south of the subtropical ridge.  The ridge is expected to remain
relatively stationary, with the cyclone forecast to continue
west-northwestward for the next couple of days.  There are some
speed differences, however, with the ECMWF showing a slightly faster
motion compared with the other track models.  The NHC official
forecast is a little faster than the consensus model trackers, which
did not include the ECMWF solution on this forecast cycle.  After 48
hours, the weakening cyclone is expected to turn westward and then
west-southwestward by day 5.

The depression only has a small window of opportunity to strengthen.
Vertical shear is forecast to be low during the next 36 hours and
then increase significantly in 2 to 3 days.  In addition, the
cyclone should move over water colder than 26 degrees Celsius and
into a much drier mid-level environment in about 36 hours.
Therefore, only modest strengthening to tropical storm strength is
shown in the NHC official forecast in the first day or two, followed
by weakening and degeneration to a remnant low by day 3.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 14.7N 116.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
12H  02/1200Z 15.1N 118.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  03/0000Z 15.8N 120.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  03/1200Z 16.5N 122.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  04/0000Z 17.1N 124.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  05/0000Z 17.7N 128.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  06/0000Z 17.0N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0000Z 15.5N 135.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

ben811018

不看好發展也相當分歧

t02436

NHC 15Z正報命名Agatha，雖然02E是自1969年以來東太最晚獲得命名的第一個熱帶風暴，但是是今年東北與西北太平洋第一個獲得命名的熱帶氣旋!

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 021447
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022016
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 02 2016

Recent SSM/I and AMSR-2 data indicate that the center of Tropical
Depression Two-E has become centrally located in the convective
overcast, and first-light visible imagery shows a large convective
burst near the center.  Satellite intensity estimates at 1200Z were
30 kt from TAFB and SAB.  Based on the increased organization since
that time and a recent CIMSS ADT estimate of 35 kt, the depression
is upgraded to Tropical Storm Agatha, the first named storm of the
2016 eastern Pacific hurricane season.

The initial motion is 295/10.  A low- to mid-level ridge to the
north of the storm should steer it generally west-northwestward for
24 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the west.  Late in the
forecast period, a turn toward the west-southwest is expected as
the remnants of Agatha come under the influence of a larger
tropical weather system to the east.  The new forecast track is
shifted to the north of the previous track based on the initial
position and motion.  However, it lies to the south of the various
consensus models.

Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 12-24
hours while Agatha remains in a light/moderate shear environment
over relatively warm sea surface temperatures.  Beyond that time, a
combination of strong southwesterly shear and cooler sea surface
temperatures should cause a steady weakening.  Agatha is expected
to weaken to a depression by 48 hours, a remnant low by 72 hours,
and dissipate completely by 120 hours.

Agatha is the latest first tropical storm in the eastern Pacific
since Ava of 1969.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 15.6N 118.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  03/0000Z 16.2N 120.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  03/1200Z 17.0N 122.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  04/0000Z 17.7N 124.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  04/1200Z 18.1N 126.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  05/1200Z 18.0N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  06/1200Z 17.0N 134.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

蜜露

東太平洋也是47年來最晚.

這也是1951年來,歷史第五晚的紀錄

1951年以來,第5晚生成首個東太平洋命名強度.

東太平洋
1953   8/23 No-Name 無名
1957   7/15 Kanoa       坎諾亞
1964   7/6   Natalie     娜塔莉
1969   7/3   Ava           艾娃
2016   7/2   Agatha     阿加莎



東太平洋歷史最晚是8月23日........但是他們洋區早期有沒有可能遺漏了不清楚?