ben811018

東側乾空氣+風切偏強的關係持續裸露中

t02436

JTWC評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.9N 135.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 310 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 110002Z 89GHZ METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. AN 110055Z ASCAT PASS
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED, SYMMETRIC LLCC EAST OF THE CONVECTION. THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT INDICATES AN AREA OF WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT
WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 28 AND 30 CELSIUS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY WEAK DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.