陳約禮@FB

  一級颶風  
編號：07 E
名稱：Frank


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2016 年 07 月 21 日 02 時
命名日期　　：2016 年 07 月 22 日 05 時
撤編日期　　：2016 年 07 月 31 日 01 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速：75 kt
海平面最低氣壓：979 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
99E.INVEST.25kts.1009mb.9.5N.99.0W


NHC : 40%

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce a large but disorganized
area of showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and
a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days
while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about 10 mph
to the south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

陳約禮@FB

JTWC於06Z發布TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 210800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2N 101.5W TO 16.5N 108.4W WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 210700Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 102.2W. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.8N
100.9W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 102.2W, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING. A 210144Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
CURVED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10
KNOTS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SLOW
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
220800Z.//
NNNN

NHC提升TC生成機率為70%


底層建立中


對流旺盛，螺旋隱現


惟數值對後續強度看法分歧

蜜露

GFS預報, 未來東太平洋還是持續熱鬧

Frank和08E 都很看好強度.

7月一次就命名了7個 , 有5個颶風強度. 1個Cat.4
放到西太. 7月內命名7個, 5中颱也不是真的很容易.






今年東太平洋七月,有點像1973年西太平洋強厄轉拉的表現.

6月前無颱. 誰知道七月一次就命名7個颱風.

陳約禮@FB

受低OHC影響，Frank發展遲緩，遲遲未能跨過颶風門檻，NHC連續多報給予55kt強度，未來將逐漸減弱

TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
900 AM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Frank remains a sheared tropical cyclone with microwave data showing
the center of circulation located near the northern edge of a large
mass of deep convection.  The advisory wind speed is kept at 55 kt,
between the Dvorak estimates that range from 50 to 65 kt.  The main
controlling factor for Frank's intensity is expected to be gradually
cooling waters since northeasterly shear is forecast to continue at
about the same magnitude for the next few days.  Slow weakening is
forecast by late Monday and beyond due to the cyclone moving over
marginal waters and eventually into a dry and stable air mass.  The
new forecast is very close to the previous interpolated official
prediction, and is a bit lower than the intensity consensus at long
range.

Microwave data indicate that Frank has turned to the west-
northwest, now moving at 6 kt.  A ridge centered over the
southwestern United States seems to be building in over northwestern
Mexico, causing a mid- to upper-level trough west of the Baja
California peninsula to move far enough away from Frank to have less
influence.  Frank should be steered west-northwestward or westward
at a relatively slow forward speed to the south of that ridge for
the next several days.  Other than some minor speed differences, the
guidance continues to be in relatively good agreement, and the
latest NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous
one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 20.3N 112.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  25/0000Z 20.6N 113.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  25/1200Z 21.0N 114.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  26/0000Z 21.2N 115.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  26/1200Z 21.3N 116.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  27/1200Z 22.2N 119.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  28/1200Z 23.0N 122.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/1200Z 23.0N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

OHC不足，發展受阻



Frank也逐漸移入海溫低於26度的海域


近幾個小時，對流重新爆發

底層紮實但卷不起來

t02436

強度長久在55節上下徘徊，終於在第20報站上一級颶風!
Frank成為東太七月份第5個颶風，創下有史以來7月最多颶風紀錄!!

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 261458
TCDEP2

HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016

After struggling during the last few days, Frank has become much
better organized overnight, with deeper and more symmetric
convection.  A SSM/IS pass from a couple of hours ago also indicated
the development of a vertically aligned eye feature. The 12z
satellite intensity estimates were 65 kt and 55 kt from TAFB and
SAB.  Since that time, the appearance of the cyclone has improved in
satellite imagery with the formation of a visible eye, so the
initial wind speed is set to 65 kt.

Frank has less than 24 hours before it moves over SSTs cooler than
26C.  Although it is not explicitly forecast, the hurricane could
become strengthen a little more sometime before weakening begins on
Wednesday due to much cooler waters.  Frank should lose all of its
convection and transition to a post-tropical cyclone in about 2 days
when it encounters cold waters of 22-23C. The NHC forecast is raised
from the previous one, primarily due to the initial conditions, then
is blended with the previous forecast and the intensity consensus
IVCN.

The hurricane has finally started to move, estimated at 290/8 kt.
This general track is predicted for the next couple of days while
Frank is steered by a restrengthened subtropical ridge.  After 48
hours, Frank is expected to turn more westward when it becomes a
shallow remnant low.  Little change is made to the previous NHC
forecast, except for a small westward shift at long range near the
dynamical model consensus.

Frank is the 5th hurricane to form in the eastern Pacific during
July.  This is the most on record for July, eclipsing the previous
record of 4 previously set in 5 other years.  Reliable records in
the eastern Pacific for hurricanes begin in 1971.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 21.2N 116.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  27/0000Z 21.6N 118.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  27/1200Z 22.4N 119.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  28/0000Z 23.1N 121.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  28/1200Z 23.8N 123.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H  29/1200Z 24.4N 125.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

底層眼建立中...

陳約禮@FB

Frank短暫開眼觸及顛峰後迅速減弱，最新一報已減弱為熱帶低氣壓

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
800 AM PDT THU JUL 28 2016

Frank has only been devoid of organized deep convection since about
0400 UTC, so the system is still being maintained as a tropical
cyclone for this advisory.  However, if this downward convective
trend continues, which appears likely since Frank is now moving
over sub-23 deg C sea-surface temperatures, then the cyclone will
become a remnant low pressure system this afternoon in the next
advisory package. Continued spin down should result in dissipation
of the low-level circulation by 72 hours.

Microwave satellite fixes indicate that Frank is now moving at
290/07 kt.  The weakening cyclone is forecast to become more
vertically shallow over the next 48 hours, which should result in a
turn toward the west and then west-southwest, accompanied by gradual
deceleration due to weak easterly tradewind flow. The official
forecast is similar to the previous track and lies close to the TVCN
consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 23.7N 124.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  29/0000Z 24.0N 125.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  29/1200Z 24.1N 126.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  30/0000Z 24.0N 127.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  30/1200Z 23.7N 127.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

受低海溫低OHC影響，深層對流消散殆盡


但低層環流尚稱完整