AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.7N 117.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 420 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION HAS
MOVED OFF OF THE COAST OF LUZON INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THIS LLCC
IS LOCATED IN AN AREA WITH LIGHT (5-10 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND VERY WARM (30 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. MODERATE OUTFLOW IS PRIMARILY EQUATORWARD. THE GFS,
ECMWF, AND UKMET MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT THE LLCC WILL FURTHER
CONSOLIDATE, WITH TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. DUE TO THE WELL DEFINED LLCC AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM
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