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1606 康森 掠過北海道沿岸 轉化為溫帶氣旋

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2016-8-6 12:53 | 顯示全部樓層
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-8-6 14:05 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
20.2N 168.0E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MID-LEVEL TURNING
WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
EASTERLY WAVE WHICH IS SEEN IN AN 052230Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS. THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT INDICATES AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29 AND 30 CELSIUS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair.jpg

預測會成為奧麥斯的小跟班
90W_gefs_latest.png

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-8-7 14:02 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC提升評級至Medium
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.2N 168.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 164.5E, APPROXIMATELY
125 NM WEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS AN IMPROVEMENT IN
THE LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH DUE TO 15 TO 20
KNOT NORTHERLY VWS. A 062215Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A BETTER DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY.
THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS STRUGGLING DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS
OF A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE OUTFLOW OF TS 07W CONVERGING
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO
THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE LLCC AND EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL IMPROVEMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

abpwsair.jpg

90W_gefs_latest.png

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-8-7 22:39 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA升格熱帶低壓
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 18N 162E NW SLOWLY.

16080721.png

20160807.1400.himawari-8.ircolor.90W.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.17.9N.163.1E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-8-8 11:32 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC發布TCFA
wp902016.20160808032908.gif

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-8-8 14:51 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 06Z立刻升格08W
08W EIGHT 160808 0600  17.7N  160.8E WPAC   25  1004

20160808.0600.himawari-8.ircolor.90W.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.17.4N.161.2E.100pc.jpg

首報巔峰僅上望65節
wp082016.20160808073841.gif

點評

JMA發布GW [attachimg]63858[/attachimg]  詳情 回復 發表於 2016-8-8 15:27
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-8-8 15:27 | 顯示全部樓層
t02436 發表於 2016-8-8 14:51
JTWC 06Z立刻升格08W

JMA發布GW
熱帯低気圧
平成28年08月08日16時25分 発表

<08日15時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        ウェーク島近海
中心位置        北緯 17度10分(17.2度)
東経 161度35分(161.6度)
進行方向、速さ        西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<09日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        南鳥島近海
予報円の中心        北緯 17度35分(17.6度)
東経 159度00分(159.0度)
進行方向、速さ        西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧        996hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)

b-00.png
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

蜜露|2016-8-8 22:35 | 顯示全部樓層


GFS最新的長期預報 ,  08W和台灣旁邊未來的新系統 ,強度都被下修了

不過JTWC首報暫時上看Cat.1 ,靠近日本而北上
gfs_mslp_uv850_wpac_21.png



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大低壓帶北抬 數值每報變化都很大  發表於 2016-8-8 22:44
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