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1610 獅子山 路徑極罕見 觀測史上首個登陸日本東北地區颱風

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2016-8-15 00:07 | 顯示全部樓層
  中度颱風  
編號:1610 ( 12 W )
名稱:獅子山(Lionrock )
1610.png

  基本資料     
擾動編號日期:2016 08 15 00
升格熱低日期:2016 08 16 20
命名日期  :2016 08 19 20
停編日期  :2016 08 30 23
登陸地點  :日本 岩手縣 大船渡市

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB):45 m/s ( 14 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :45 m/s ( 90 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC) :  115 kts ( Cat.4 )

最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑
海平面最低氣壓: 938 百帕
七級風半徑  : 250 公里
十級風半徑  : 080 公里

  過去路徑圖  
1610_獅子山_LIONROCK_TRACK_t02436_TWTYBBS.png

  討論帖圖片  
96W.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.19N.160E

20160814.1530.himawari-8.ir.96W.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.19N.160E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

點評

快走不送  發表於 2016-8-15 08:14

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參與人數 3水氣能量 +70 +1 收起 理由
蕭鎧霆@FB + 60 不錯
king111807 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖
ben811018 + 10

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-8-15 11:15 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.8N 160.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 315NM WEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 142248Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS WEAKLY-DEFINED,
FRAGMENTED, SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING LOOSELY AROUND THE BROAD LLCC.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY FAIR DIFFLUENCE.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH
INTENSIFICATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW (HENCE,
A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS). MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair.jpg

rbtop-animated.gif

96W_gefs_latest.png

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

正宜27|2016-8-15 13:35 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 正宜27 於 2016-8-15 19:05 編輯

jma 預測今晚將增強為T.D 16081521.png

點評

已修正.謝謝  發表於 2016-8-15 19:08
14日12Z的+24小時預測,所以是今天12Z。  發表於 2016-8-15 13:45
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-8-16 00:26 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC提升評級至Medium
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.8N
160.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 162.4E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST
OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING, BUT STILL BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 150827Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS INCREASING FLARING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WRAPPING AROUND THE BROAD LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY INDICATES AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIORNMENT
WITH WEAKENING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS
AND MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL DIFLUENCE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH INTENSIFICATION ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW (HENCE, A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH SOME
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

abpwsair.jpg

20160815.1046.mta.ASCAT.wind.96W.INVEST.20kts-1004mb.192N.1624E.25km.jpg

96W_gefs_latest.png

rbtop-animated.gif
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

0908morakot|2016-8-16 15:57 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC降評Low
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.2N 162.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 162.1E, APPROXIMATELY
257 NM WEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 152314Z METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT SHALLOW
CONVECTION ALONG EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AND
ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), EVIDENT ON A 152315Z
50KM METOP-A ASCAT PASS. WINDS ARE 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITHIN THE CENTER
AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS EAST OF THAN. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A TUTT
CELL SIMULTANEOUSLY CREATING SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTED BY RIDGING
EAST AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS CREATING POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE HIGH VWS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO
THE DEGRADED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

96W_gefs_latest.png

20160816.0710.himawari-8.ircolor.96W.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.19N.161.8E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

蜜露|2016-8-16 21:35 | 顯示全部樓層


未來的趨勢還是很混亂 , 風切都太過強勁.

EC和GFS是有點分歧 95W和96W的強度.
gfs_mslp_uv850_wpac_13.png


ecmwf_mslp_uv850_wpac_4.png


強度上來看 , GFS是看中96W , 而EC是95W


點評

96W在威克島西北方,95W在南海  發表於 2016-8-17 23:38
原來是這樣,感謝alu大  發表於 2016-8-17 08:35
alu
廖健泓@FB 在廣東海面是95W 在東京灣那個沒有編號,且只有CWB是兩個熱低,美、日都只有一個  發表於 2016-8-16 22:59
剛剛看CWB的天氣概況 怎會有2個中心 1個在廣東海面 1個在東京灣?  發表於 2016-8-16 22:20
alu
可是 95W都已經降到994都還沒有變成颱風,我記得好像以前還沒有出現過的現象  發表於 2016-8-16 21:43
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

alu|2016-8-16 22:03 | 顯示全部樓層
96w不見了,是消失了還是重編了?
latestNWP.png

點評

alu
看美國海軍實驗中心(NRL)應該是97w消散了才對,怎麼地圖上留97w消調96w呢?  發表於 2016-8-16 22:55
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-8-16 22:32 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA升格熱帶低壓並發布W。
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 22.5N 160.9E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

20160816.1340.himawari-8.ircolor.96W.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.19N.161.8E.100pc.jpg

16081621.png
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