0908morakot

  中度颱風  
編號：1610 ( 12 W )
名稱：獅子山（Lionrock )


  基本資料     
擾動編號日期：2016 年 08 月 15 日 00 時
升格熱低日期：2016 年 08 月 16 日 20 時
命名日期　　：2016 年 08 月 19 日 20 時
停編日期　　：2016 年 08 月 30 日 23 時
登陸地點　　：日本 岩手縣 大船渡市

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：45 m/s ( 14 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：45 m/s ( 90 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC) :  115 kts ( Cat.4 )

最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑
海平面最低氣壓： 938 百帕
七級風半徑　　： 250 公里
十級風半徑　　： 080 公里

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
96W.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.19N.160E


以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

JTWC評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.8N 160.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 315NM WEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 142248Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS WEAKLY-DEFINED,
FRAGMENTED, SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING LOOSELY AROUND THE BROAD LLCC.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY FAIR DIFFLUENCE.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH
INTENSIFICATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW (HENCE,
A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS). MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

正宜27

jma 預測今晚將增強為T.D

t02436

JTWC提升評級至Medium

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.8N
160.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 162.4E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST
OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING, BUT STILL BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 150827Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS INCREASING FLARING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WRAPPING AROUND THE BROAD LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY INDICATES AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIORNMENT
WITH WEAKENING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS
AND MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL DIFLUENCE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH INTENSIFICATION ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW (HENCE, A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH SOME
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

0908morakot

JTWC降評Low

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.2N 162.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 162.1E, APPROXIMATELY
257 NM WEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 152314Z METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT SHALLOW
CONVECTION ALONG EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AND
ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), EVIDENT ON A 152315Z
50KM METOP-A ASCAT PASS. WINDS ARE 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITHIN THE CENTER
AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS EAST OF THAN. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A TUTT
CELL SIMULTANEOUSLY CREATING SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTED BY RIDGING
EAST AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS CREATING POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE HIGH VWS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO
THE DEGRADED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

蜜露

未來的趨勢還是很混亂 , 風切都太過強勁.

EC和GFS是有點分歧 95W和96W的強度.






強度上來看 , GFS是看中96W , 而EC是95W

alu

96w不見了，是消失了還是重編了？

t02436

JMA升格熱帶低壓並發布W。

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 22.5N 160.9E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.