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1620 桑達 始於中太 GW破百小時 高緯爆發上C4 連三世皆問鼎STY

簽到天數: 2084 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2016-10-3 13:47 | 顯示全部樓層
  中度颱風  
編號:1620 ( 23 W / 94 C )
名稱:桑達 ( Songda )
1620.jpg

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2016 10 03 13
升格熱低日期:2016 10 04 08
命名日期  :2016 10 08 20
停編日期  :2016 10 13 14
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB):48 m/s ( 15 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :50 m/s ( 100 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC) :  130 kts ( Cat.4 )

海平面最低氣壓與暴風半徑
海平面最低氣壓:930 百帕
七級風半徑  :200 公里
十級風半徑  :080 公里

  過去路徑圖  
1620_桑達_SONGDA_TRACK_t02436_TWTYBBS.png

  討論帖圖片  
94C.INVEST.25kts.1003mb.13.7N.177.3W

20161003.0430.himawari-8.ircolor.94C.INVEST.25kts.1003mb.13.7N.177.3W.100pc.jpg

CPHC:10%
1. An area of low pressure is located about 1300 miles west-
southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. Showers and thunderstorms continue
to develop near this area but remain transient and disorganized.
Environmental conditions could support some organization over the
next couple of days as it moves northwest at less than 10 mph. gtwo_gsat_lg.gif

以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、JTWC、CPHC、颱風論壇編輯製作

點評

不過這種跨洋颱風,應該都是提前北轉機率高吧!而且現在已經十月了,副高沒理由強這麼久都不東退  發表於 2016-10-3 18:59
EC預測後期強度將會不弱同時暫時預測會北轉但是時間很久路徑上還有得改  發表於 2016-10-3 17:16

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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kibishi0515|2016-10-3 18:33 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
GFS預測94C會跑到西太平洋 可能會和99W競爭艾利這個名字

點評

以目前數值來說 基本認為94C的勝算稍高(不過EC竟然預測99W登陸台灣 感覺不是很可靠  發表於 2016-10-3 19:47
對,94C和99W看誰先變成19號颱,預期都有機會變成颱風。  發表於 2016-10-3 18:43
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kibishi0515|2016-10-3 22:40 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 kibishi0515 於 2016-10-3 23:15 編輯

中心似乎已越過國際換日線。
是說中太擾動在西太升熱低是用W作結尾嗎?

CWB十點雲圖,國際換日線上可看到94C的雲系。

CWB十點雲圖,國際換日線上可看到94C的雲系。

點評

了解。  發表於 2016-10-4 04:26
我是說國際換日線是紐西蘭東方的經線,不是擾動在紐西蘭東方XDD用詞有點誤導人,我修改一下  發表於 2016-10-3 22:56
是紐西蘭的東方嗎?紐西蘭不是在南半球嗎?不要跟我說擾動會飛到北半球  發表於 2016-10-3 22:52
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-10-4 08:34 | 顯示全部樓層
CPHC認為已經進入西太,所以將發展機率歸零。
1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with an area
of low pressure located around 1550 miles west-southwest of
Honolulu, Hawaii has moved west of 180W and out of the Central
Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility.
The
disturbance is expected to move north-northwest and remain west of
180w. Therefore, tropical cyclone formation is not expected east
of 180W.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent

20161003.2215.mtb.ASCAT.wind.94C.INVEST.25kts-1008mb.155N.1799W.25km.jpg

從可見光雲圖來看中心的確已經跑到178.5E的位置了
vis_lalo-animated.gif
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kibishi0515|2016-10-4 10:51 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA:TD
WARNING.

八點JMA天氣圖

八點JMA天氣圖
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kibishi0515|2016-10-4 11:05 | 顯示全部樓層
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94C) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.5N 179.9E, APPROXIMATELY 720 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A 032120Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH STRONG GRADIENT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND VERY WEAK WINDS TO THE SOUTH. A 031918Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF AN ELONGATED SYSTEM. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE SUBSIDENT REGION OF A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST, WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS MIXED WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING WEAK DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWEST, HOWEVER, THE WINDOW FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT IS VERY SHORT DUE TO STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

JTWC: LOW
    LLCC已建立、另外此擾動具有北強南弱的東風波性質。
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94C) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.5N 179.9E, APPROXIMATELY 720 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A 032120Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH STRONG GRADIENT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND
VERY WEAK WINDS TO THE SOUTH. A 031918Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF AN
ELONGATED SYSTEM. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE SUBSIDENT REGION OF A TUTT CELL TO THE
NORTHWEST, WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE IS MIXED WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING WEAK DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWEST, HOWEVER,
THE WINDOW FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT IS VERY SHORT DUE TO STRONG
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

IMG_20161004_120638.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-10-4 15:25 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA發布GW
熱帯低気圧
平成28年10月04日16時20分 発表

<04日15時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        ミッドウェー諸島近海
中心位置        北緯 16度35分(16.6度)
東経 177度35分(177.6度)
進行方向、速さ        西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧        1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<05日03時の予報>
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        ミッドウェー諸島近海
予報円の中心        北緯 17度00分(17.0度)
東経 175度50分(175.8度)
進行方向、速さ        西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径        110km(60NM)

<05日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        ウェーク島近海
予報円の中心        北緯 17度30分(17.5度)
東経 173度55分(173.9度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)

a-00.png

rbtop-animated.gif

點評

JMA最近都有這種問題,芙蓉也是  發表於 2016-10-4 15:32
這GW發的有點太早.  發表於 2016-10-4 15:31
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

blackcat|2016-10-4 17:15 | 顯示全部樓層
看窩度的話可以理解為何發GW
型態的話就不吐槽了..

CP1040600.jpg
94CVIS104.gif
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