簽到天數: 2141 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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周子堯@FB|2016-10-30 20:38
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本帖最後由 周子堯@FB 於 2016-10-31 06:01 編輯
JTWC評級LOW! B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.7N 149.4E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 300331Z SSMIS 85GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT AN AREA OF FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS BEGINNING TO WRAP
INTO A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 300004Z ASCAT
PASS ALSO REVEALS THIS LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY, AND WEAKER WINDS TO THE SOUTH. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 72-HOURS AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD, JUST SOUTH OF
GUAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
另外,JMA預測兩天後增強為T.D.
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