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05B.Vardah 始於泰國灣 強襲印度清奈 橫越北印度洋登陸索國

簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2016-12-2 00:19 | 顯示全部樓層
  特強氣旋風暴  
編號:BOB 06 / ARB 02 ( 05B )
名稱:Vardah
Vardah 2016-12-11 0515Z.jpg

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2016 12 01 23
命名日期  :2016 12 08 11
撤編日期  :2016 12 19 15
登陸地點  :印度 坦米爾納德邦 清奈
       索馬利亞

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
印度氣象局 (IMD):70 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC) :75 kt
海平面最低氣壓   :982 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
TWTYBBS_BOB06_ARB02(05B)_VARDAH_TRACK_t02436_TWTYBBS.jpg

  討論帖圖片  
99W.INVEST.15kts.1002mb.3N.103.6E

20161201.1530.himawari-8.ircolor.99W.INVEST.15kts.1002mb.3N.103.6E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

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簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2016-12-3 08:44 | 顯示全部樓層
今年北印度洋最大焦點,印度東海岸可能嚴重受害。
46.windswath.png
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2016-12-3 09:41 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 01Z評級"LOW"
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.2N
99.5E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 022134Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT A VERY BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IN THE
AREA ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), OFFSET BY BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
SUMATRA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. DURING THIS TWO DAY PERIOD, SYSTEM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE HINDERED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
abiosair (3).jpg


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[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2016-12-4 01:18 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 18Z評級提升"MEDIUM",數值看好發展。
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.2N 99.5E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.1N 97.9E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
031236Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A VERY BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION AND
FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IN
THE AREA ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SUMATRA OVER
THE NEXT DAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE VWS
ENVIRONMENT AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEVELOP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
abiosair (4).jpg 99W_gefs_latest.png 20161203.063012.npp.viirs.Infrared.tc1699WINVEST.covg100p0.x.res1km.jpg


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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

s6815711|2016-12-4 08:38 | 顯示全部樓層

wp992016.16120312.jpg 20161204.0000.meteo7.x.ir1km_bw.99WINVEST.25kts-1006mb-55N-970E.100pc.jpg


這種風場圖還是第一次看到
稍微對照一下
感覺還蠻特別的



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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

s6815711|2016-12-5 17:56 | 顯示全部樓層
中午看JTWC把它降為Low
不知道是不是誤植
現在又改回去了
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-12-6 23:37 | 顯示全部樓層
IMD編號BOB 06,預測一天內增強為深低壓。
Sub: Depression over southeast Bay of Bengal.
The depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards with a speed of about 20 kmph and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 6
th December, 2016 over southeast Bay of Bengal near Latitude 8.8ºN and Longitude 90.5ºE, about 1260 km south-southeast of Vishakhapatnam, 1310 km south-southeast of Gopalpur and 260 km west-southwest of Car Nicobar.The system is very likely to move northwestwards during next 72 hrs. It is very likely to intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hrs and into a cyclonic storm in subsequent 24 hrs.


BOB/06/2016
Dated: 06.12.2016
The depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards with a speed of about 20 kmph and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 6 th December, 2016 over southeast Bay of Bengal near Latitude 8.8ºN and Longitude 90.5ºE, about 1260 km south-southeast of Vishakhapatnam, 1310 km south-southeast of Gopalpur and 260 km west-southwest of Car Nicobar.        

99W_gefs_latest.png

20161206.1500.meteo-7.ircolor.99W.INVEST.25kts.1005mb.8.5N.91.8E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.5]常住居民I

CheungHin@FB|2016-12-6 23:51 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 CheungHin@FB 於 2016-12-7 00:27 編輯

各位好!

99W這幾日的發展較慢, 終於在09:00UTC被印度氣象局升為低壓, 並預料24小時內會增強為深低壓
warning.png
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