開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

04F(99P) Medium 風切干擾 逐漸消散

簽到天數: 2414 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2016-12-13 12:58 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 s6815711 於 2016-12-21 17:51 編輯

  基本資料  
編號    :04 F ( 99 P )
擾動編號日期:2016 12 13 09
撤編日期  :2016 12 21 11
99P.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-13.2S-175.9E

20161213.0110.himawari8.x.ir1km_bw.99PINVEST.15kts-NAmb-132S-1759E.100pc.jpg

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

查看全部評分

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 4413 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

s6815711|2016-12-13 18:09 | 顯示全部樓層
評級給至Low

abpwsair.jpg
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.8N 109.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 109.1E, APPROXIMATELY
135 NM EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. A 122331Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WEAK
CONVECTION DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, MODERATE
TO HIGH (20-30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND CONDUCIVE SST (28C).
GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THIS SYSTEM QUASI-STATIONARY AND DO NOT DEPICT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO LOW.


回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 3279 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-12-14 20:13 | 顯示全部樓層
評級提升到Medium
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.4S 173.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 175.8E, APPROXIMATELY
230 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 140305Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY, ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG CONVERGENT FLOW. A
132158Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER
WINDS (20-25 KT) WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE PRIMARILY TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(20-25 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS
AS THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

abpwsair.jpg

WWPS21 NFFN 140600
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 140848 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 04F [1004HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.5S 175.5E AT
140600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. SST AROUND 30 DEGRESS CELCIUS.

CONVECTION PERSISTENT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A UPPER
DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS OVER TO 700HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM WITH SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT AND
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

99P_gefs_latest.png

20161214.1110.himawari-8.ircolor.99P.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.14.5S.175.1E.100pc.jpg
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 3279 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-12-15 16:38 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC早上發布TCFA
sh992017.20161215063945.gif

FMS已經升格熱帶低壓,預測明天就會命名
官方網頁一直進不了= =
WTPS11 NFFN 150000
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 151422 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD04F CENTRE 1000HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.8S
174.5E AT 150000UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR/VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT
ABOUT 05 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.


DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED PAST 24
HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST AROUND 29 DEGREE. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE
UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED 0.3 WRAP YIELDS DT=2.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT
BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING, T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS
WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.   

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC 16.2S 174.5E MOV S AT 03KT WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC 16.5S 174.9E MOV SE AT 03KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC 16.9S 175.2E MOV SE AT 03KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC 17.4S 175.3E MOV SE AT 03KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD04F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
150800UTC.


99P_gefs_latest.png

20161215.0750.himawari-8.ircolor.99P.INVEST.30kts.1002mb.16.6S.173.9E.100pc.jpg
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2016-12-15 23:06 | 顯示全部樓層
提示: 作者被禁止或刪除 內容自動屏蔽
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2016-12-17 13:47 | 顯示全部樓層
提示: 作者被禁止或刪除 內容自動屏蔽
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 3279 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-12-19 12:12 | 顯示全部樓層
中心擦過斐濟
vis-animated.gif

20161219.0320.himawari-8.ircolor.99P.INVEST.30kts.999mb.17.2S.177.4E.100pc.jpg
回復

使用道具 舉報

快速回覆
您需要登錄後才可以回帖 登錄 | 立即加入

本版積分規則

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表