周子堯@FB

JTWC評級為Medium

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.1S 101.7E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM EAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND PARTIALLY-FAVORABLE 20-30 KNOTS OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 28C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, DEPICTING SLOW CONSOLIDATION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20-25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.