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09U (95S) 對流消長

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

2017-1-5 01:56 | 顯示全部樓層
基本資料   
編號    :09 U ( 95 S )
擾動編號日期:2017 01 05 01
消散日期  :2017 01 10 08
95S-INVEST-15kts-NAmb-10S-100E

20170104.1810.himawari8.x.ir1km_bw.95SINVEST.20kts-1007mb-104S-1034E.100pc.jpg

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[LV.10]以壇為家III

周子堯@FB|2017-1-6 17:43 | 顯示全部樓層

JTWC評級為Medium

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.1S 101.7E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM EAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND PARTIALLY-FAVORABLE 20-30 KNOTS OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 28C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, DEPICTING SLOW CONSOLIDATION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20-25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.   


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劉瑞益@FB|2017-1-7 07:33 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 劉瑞益@FB 於 2017-1-7 07:37 編輯

JTWC 18Z評級降低"LOW"
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.1S 101.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 100.2E, APPROXIMATELY
190 NM EAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 061212Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SOME BANDING PRESENT. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF POOR TO MODERATE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH GOOD POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS), OFFSET BY AN AREA OF
HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT, DEPICTING A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK AND SLOW
CONSOLIDATION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

abiosair (7).jpg rbtop-animated (3).gif


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[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-1-10 03:56 | 顯示全部樓層
BoM 昨天已升格熱低壓並編號"09U"
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Monday 9 January 2017
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 12 January 2017.

Potential Cyclones:   

At 1pm WST on Monday, a tropical low (09U) was located near 10.5S 102.6E,
approximately 340 kilometres west of Christmas Island. The models are generally
consistent in moving the system southeasterly during Monday and Tuesday, and
then in a easterly direction south of Christmas Island during Wednesday to
Saturday. The development to tropical cyclone intensity is unlikely due to an
unfavourable environment in the region, and all model guidance is consistent in
NOT significantly intensifying the system. Christmas Island may experience fresh
to strong northwesterly winds and heavy rainfall at times as the system passes
to the south of the island during the week.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
                                   Tuesday: Very Low
                                   Wednesday: Very Low
                                   Thursday: Very Low

rgb-animated (6).gif

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