簽到天數: 3291 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2017-1-28 10:38
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BoM 18Z評價35節，00Z再根據南方島嶼實測資料調升評價至45節，只是還不肯命名。
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0106 UTC 28/01/2017
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 20.0S
Longitude: 114.9E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [246 deg]
Speed of Movement: 15 knots [29 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 28/0600: 20.2S 113.6E: 040 [080]: 045 [085]: 986
+12: 28/1200: 20.4S 112.7E: 065 [120]: 045 [085]: 985
+18: 28/1800: 20.4S 111.7E: 075 [140]: 050 [095]: 982
+24: 29/0000: 20.5S 111.0E: 085 [155]: 050 [095]: 981
+36: 29/1200: 20.8S 109.7E: 100 [180]: 040 [075]: 988
+48: 30/0000: 21.1S 107.6E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 992
+60: 30/1200: 21.7S 106.1E: 140 [255]: 030 [055]: 994
+72: 31/0000: 22.5S 104.3E: 155 [290]: 030 [055]: 995
+96: 01/0000: 23.7S 100.6E: 200 [370]: 030 [055]: 994
+120: 02/0000: 23.6S 95.2E: 290 [535]: 025 [045]: 998
REMARKS:The centre of the tropical low is estimated using a combination the Port
Hedland and Dampier radars along with surface wind observations.
There appears to be multiple weak vorticies around a broader circulation.
DVORAK analysis was performed using a curved band pattern which gave a wrap of
around 0.4. The system has been assessed as standard development [D] over the
last 24hrs so the MET is 2.5, but it restricted by the PAT. FT and CI is 2.0.
Intensity is set at 45 knots and this is confirmed by several mean wind
observations of 40-45 knots at Barrow Island and also other locations just
offshore of the Pilbara coastline. Although those winds are likely to be only
limited to the southern side of the system due to the fast translation speed to
the west southwest and also an increased pressure gradient between the system
and a high pressure system over central Australia.
The environment is generally favourable for development. Wind shear from CIMSS
is easterly 10 to 15 knots and also similar results from other numerical weather
guidance. There is abundant moisture feeding into this system and there are
outflow channels evident, mainly to the north. The system is forecast to develop
into a tropical cyclone within the next 12 hours. The system is then expected to
encounter cooler sea surface temperatures in the next 24-36 hours which may
further hinder its development.
NWP guidance remains consistent keeping the tracks and speed of the system
clustered about the current forecast solution. Recent motion has been relatively
fast, around 15 knots toward the west southwest, and the system is expected to
continue in this direction as it is under the influence of a strong mid-level
ridge to the south.
Winds and waves on the southern side will be enhanced due to the system's
translation speed and ridge to the south.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 28/0730 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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