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09S.Enawo 2004年以來登陸馬達加斯加最強氣旋

簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2017-2-28 01:41 | 顯示全部樓層
  強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號:06-20162017 ( 09S )
名稱:Enawo

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2017 02 28 01
命名日期  :2017 03 03 14
撤編日期  :2017 03 11 08
登陸地點  :馬達加斯加 安塔拉哈縣

  災情
死亡人數:78人

受災  :17.6萬人

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
法國氣象局(MFR):110 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC):125 kt ( CAT
.4 )
海平面最低氣壓925 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
09S-Enawo.png
  討論帖圖片  
95S.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.6S.73E
20170227.1800.msg-1.ircolor.95S.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.6S.73E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:法國氣象局、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作





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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 +1 收起 理由
jwpk9899 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖~

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簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2017-2-28 02:59 | 顯示全部樓層
ECMWF最新預測太恐怖⋯⋯
ecmwf_mslp_uv850_ind_10.png
ecmwf_mslp_uv850_ind_9.png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

s6815711|2017-3-1 08:38 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 20Z評級提升至Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.3S 69.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 208 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA.  ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION.
281410Z 89 GHZ AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS VERY SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF AN ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC).  UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE DIFFLUENCE BEING
OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 27C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH INTENSIFICATION LIKELY
WITHIN 2-3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. DUE TO THE CURRENT DISORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AND UNFAVORABLE
WIND SHEAR THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abiosair.jpg

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

s6815711|2017-3-2 11:07 | 顯示全部樓層
18Z時評級提升至Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.3S 69.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 67.9E, APPROXIMATELY 305
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, A 010450Z ASCAT PASS, AND A 011431Z 91 GHZ SSMIS
IMAGE DEPICT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASING EQUATORWARD
AND POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, AND MODERATE, BUT DECREASING,
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 28C ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
DISTURBANCE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD AND
CONSOLIDATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND MULTIPLE MODEL DEVELOPMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

abiosair.jpg

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2017-3-2 15:55 | 顯示全部樓層
ECMWF和GFS預測繼續分歧:前者再次西調掠過馬達加斯加東岸,後者以高強度直撲留尼旺。
gfs_mslp_wind_ind_25.png
ecmwf_mslp_uv850_ind_8.png
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-3-3 10:13 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 19Z發布TCFA  有機會升格 sh9517.gif 95S_021930sair.jpg

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-3-3 11:44 | 顯示全部樓層
補昨12Z MFR編號報文
WTIO30 FMEE 021322
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/6/20162017
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER  6
2.A POSITION 2017/03/02 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 60.1 E
(ELEVEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY    DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/0 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2017/03/03 00 UTC: 12.1 S / 59.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2017/03/03 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 58.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2017/03/04 00 UTC: 12.7 S / 58.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2017/03/04 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 57.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2017/03/05 00 UTC: 13.7 S / 57.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2017/03/05 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 57.2 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2017/03/06 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2017/03/07 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 55.2 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 6 SHOWS A LARGE CIRCULATION INSIDE OF
WHICH IT IS DIFFICULT TO DEFINE A CENTER PRECISELY. THE ASCAT SWATH
ENABLES TO ESTIMATE MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 20KT FAR FROM THE CENTER,
WHICH MAY LOCALLY REACH 25KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG
CONVECTIVE BURSTS CONCERN THE SOUTH-WEST SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE DISTURBED
AREA.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS DRIVEN BY A NORTHEASTERN RIDGE, BENDING
GRADUALLY THE MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND THE MASCARENES
ISLANDS. HOWEVER, THE DIFFERENT MODELS AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM
ARE FLUCTUATING ON THE PHILOSOPHY OF THIS TRACK, WITH A POSSIBLE MORE
WESTWARD ORIENTATION. INDEED, A 500HPA RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR MIGHT INFLUENCE THE TRACK FROM THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE
RECENT RUNS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST SCENARIOS OF THE ECMWF'S
ENSEMBLIST FORECAST. A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ALL CONDUCIVE FOR A SUSTAINED AND
CONTINUOUS INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THUS, IT SHOULD REACH THE
STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THE END OF RANGE.=


00Z路徑預測圖
SWI_20162017.png

20170303.0330.meteo-7.ircolor.95S.INVEST.30kts.1000mb.12.2S.57.7E.100pc.jpg
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簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2017-3-3 16:16 | 顯示全部樓層
根據風場掃描升格中等熱帶風暴,持續上望強烈熱帶氣旋,一報比一報更接近馬達加斯加,最糟的情況就是登陸。
SWI_20162017.png
  1. WTIO30 FMEE 030702

  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

  4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/6/20162017
  5. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ENAWO)

  6. 2.A POSITION 2017/03/03 AT 0600 UTC:
  7. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 57.0 E
  8. (TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
  9. MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

  10. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

  11. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
  12. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
  13. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

  14. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  15. 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 0 SW: 240 NW: 280
  16. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 90 NW: 90

  17. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1400 KM
  18. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

  19. 1.B FORECASTS:
  20. 12H: 2017/03/03 18 UTC: 13.2 S / 55.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
  21. 24H: 2017/03/04 06 UTC: 13.6 S / 55.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
  22. 36H: 2017/03/04 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 55.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  23. 48H: 2017/03/05 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 55.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  24. 60H: 2017/03/05 18 UTC: 14.7 S / 54.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  25. 72H: 2017/03/06 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 53.6 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

  26. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
  27. 96H: 2017/03/07 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 51.4 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  28. 120H: 2017/03/08 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

  29. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  30. T=CI=2.5+

  31. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS SHIFT TOWARDS A CURVED BAND PATTERN THAT WRAPS 0.5° AROUND THE LLCC (A BIT MORE SOMETIMES). PARTIAL ASCAT-B DATA OF THIS MORNIG SUGGEST THAT GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ONLY WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

  32. THE CURRENT TRACK IS DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE WEEK-END, LEAVING THE SYSTEM DRIFTING WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT ( A SOUTHWARDS DRIFT IS POSSIBLE). IN THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE AVAILABLE MODELS SEEM TO CONVERGE TOWARD A MORE ZONAL TRACK AND A DELAYED PARABOLIC TRACK, BRINGING THE SYSTEM SIGNIFICANTLY CLOSER OF THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR.

  33. AS THE LIGHT UPPER SHEAR SHOULD DISAPPEAR BY THIS EVENING, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE THEN ALL CONDUCIVE FOR A STEADY INTENSIFICATION. THE UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN WELL ESTABLISHED. FURTHERMORE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ONLY TRACK OVER WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY CONTENT.

  34. THE THREAT IS INCREASING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE WORST CASE SCENARII SUGGEST A POSSIBLE LANDFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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