開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

99S 登陸西北澳

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2017-3-19 18:23 | 顯示全部樓層
基本資料
編號    :99 S
擾動編號日期:
2017 03 19 17
撤編日期  :2017 03 23 22
99S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.12S.121.2E

20170319.0600.himawari8.x.ir1km_bw.99SINVEST.15kts-1010mb-120S-1212E.100pc.jpg

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
t02436 + 15

查看全部評分

簽到天數: 1154 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

周子堯@FB|2017-3-20 17:32 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級為LOW
abiosair (1).jpg

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 3 天

[LV.2]偶爾看看I

CDG環+WMG眼|2017-3-21 15:00 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 新報繼續評為LOW (20/1800Z)

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.0S 118.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 117.8E, APPROXIMATELY
250 NM NORTH OF ROWLEY SHOALS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION, WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 201408Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ DISPLAYS FORMATIVE CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAIR DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SHARPLY SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST
AUSTRALIA. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-3-22 11:03 | 顯示全部樓層
BoM 升格"熱帶低壓",有機會再登陸前命名。
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:06 pm WST on Tuesday 21 March 2017
for the period until midnight WST Friday 24 March 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the  Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:   

A weak tropical low lies near 14.7S 117.2E (about 650km north northwest of port
Hedland). It is forecast to move southwest and then south towards the Pilbara
coast on Wednesday and Thursday. Model guidance does not develop it into a
tropical cyclone and maintains a tropical low before it crosses the Pilbara
coast during Friday.
The environment is not extremely favourable for development into a tropical
cyclone. However, if the system does show good development despite the
environment there is a chance it could reach category 1 intensity during Friday
before landfall.
From Saturday the system will weaken as it moves south over land.

Likelihood of this system becoming a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
                                   Wednesday: Low,
                                   Thursday: Moderate,
                                   Friday: Moderate.
79_54563_f80abf1e5220cc8.png

JTWC 評級提升"MEDIUM."
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.2S 117.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 116.8E, APPROXIMATELY
150 NM NORTHWEST OF ROWLEY SHOALS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
WRAP INTO A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
211347Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE DISPLAYS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING
AROUND THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS) AND A WELL DEFINED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
abiosair (2).jpg



點評

現在已經登陸,20kts,1007hpa,個人給出low評級  發表於 2017-3-23 23:52
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1154 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

周子堯@FB|2017-3-24 06:19 | 顯示全部樓層
已撤編
回復

使用道具 舉報

快速回覆
您需要登錄後才可以回帖 登錄 | 立即加入

本版積分規則

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表