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02W 穿越菲中群島 中心裸露北上通過巴士海峽

簽到天數: 5 天

[LV.2]偶爾看看I

2017-4-9 11:51 | 顯示全部樓層
  熱帶低壓  
編號:02 W
名稱:
02W_TD.jpg

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2017 04 09 11
升格熱低日期:2017 04 14 15
撤編日期  :2017 04 21 07
登陸地點  :菲律賓 薩馬島

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :15 m/s ( 30 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):25 kts
海平面最低氣壓: 1005 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  擾動編號資料  
92W.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-2.0N-153.0E

20170409.0220.himawari8.x.vis2km.92WINVEST.15kts-NAmb-20N-1530E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
jwpk9899 + 15 補加分

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簽到天數: 1855 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2017-4-9 12:16 | 顯示全部樓層
gfs_mslp_uv850_fe_36.png gfs_z500_vort_fe_36.png 92W_tracks_latest.png

GFS看好發展,未來不排除從台灣東南方海域北上
不過時間還久,再觀察幾天吧XD

點評

目前只有風力15kts,先給出low,並持續觀察  發表於 2017-4-9 15:16
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簽到天數: 1076 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

周子堯@FB|2017-4-9 15:50 | 顯示全部樓層
gfs_mslp_uv850_fe_35.png

gfs_z500_vort_fe_35.png

92W_tracks_latest.png






GFS最新報跟前一報差不多

目前時間還久,發展及近台程度很可觀...

點評

黃色線段是96S,只要看北半球即可  發表於 2017-4-10 09:28
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簽到天數: 2391 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-4-10 10:12 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.0N
150.0E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED
INFRARED DVORAK SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING TO
THE WEST OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN A
091512Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE AMSR2 IMAGE ALSO REVEALS
WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM ALL
QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE, WITH MODERATE
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS)
AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32C). GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT
GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT TRACKS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BECAUSE THIS CIRCULATION
IS JUST BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair.jpg

92W_gefs_latest.png

rbtop-animated.gif
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簽到天數: 952 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

jwpk9899|2017-4-10 15:41 | 顯示全部樓層
評級MEDUIM
abpwsair.jpg
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.0N 150.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.3N 149.5E, APPROXIMATELY
282 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 092236Z GPM 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING A LOW
LEVER CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOW
IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND HIGH (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A
100010Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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簽到天數: 173 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-4-10 17:20 | 顯示全部樓層
結構鬆鬆散散
vis0-lalo.gif


irngms.GIF

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簽到天數: 1855 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2017-4-11 14:49 | 顯示全部樓層
20170411.0550.himawari-8.vis.92W.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.4N.141E.100pc.jpg

低層環流螺旋性有了
但還缺乏深層對流進一步鞏固


92W_gefs_latest.png

目前預報路徑往西修正
通過菲律賓呂宋島後北轉
只是對強度的看法就不太一致了~
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簽到天數: 173 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-4-11 17:43 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC繼續發佈Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.0N 150.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.0N 141.7E, APPROXIMATELY 145
NM NORTH OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN
110034Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT SHALLOW CONVECTION
ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). AS THE LLCC MOVED WESTWARD FROM UNDERNEATH A POINT SOURCE,
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH
LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW, AND
CONDUCIVE (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AN 110036Z METOP-A 25KM
ASCAT PASS SHOWS 15-20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LLCC. DYNAMIC GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM
AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE COMING DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ANALYZED, ALBEIT, THE SUBSIDED DEEP
CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
vis0-lalo.gif



abiosair.jpg
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