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19P.Ella 南太5月雙旋達成 掠過斐濟北方海域

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2017-5-7 02:54 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 s6815711 於 2017-5-16 16:38 編輯

  二級熱帶氣旋  
編號:22 F ( 19 P )
名稱:Ella

  基本資料  

擾動編號日期:2017 05 07 02
JTWC升格日期:2017 05 09 09
命名日期  :2017 05 09 12
撤編日期  :2017 05 16 16
登陸地點  :暫無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
斐濟氣象局 (FMS) :  60 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC): 75 kt ( Cat.1 )
海平面最低氣壓    :982 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  

91P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.17.8S.178.9W

20170506.1640.himawari8.x.ir1km_bw.91PINVEST.15kts-1010mb-178S-1789W.100pc.jpg
以上資料來自:FMS、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-5-7 22:30 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 劉瑞益@FB 於 2017-5-7 22:36 編輯

FMS 編號熱帶擾動"22F"
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD22F [1008HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 17.3S 177.2W AT
070900 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

ORGANIZATION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AND
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM LIES
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH, TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FROM SURFACE TO 700HPA.

MOST GLOBALS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

rbtop-animated.gif
JTWC 14Z評級提升"LOW"
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.3S 175.4W, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN
SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FORMATIVE, FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 070910Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND SHALLOW BANDING
ELSEWHERE WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. A 070912Z ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWS 25 TO 30 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT FLOW. DYNAMIC
MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AND A QUASI-
STATIONARY TRACK MOTION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair.jpg

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[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-5-8 09:37 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC: MEDIUM
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.3S 175.4W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 173.8W, APPROXIMATELY
240 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION WITH AN INCREASE OF FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 071828Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE,
AND SUGGESTS THE LLCC IS MORE WELL DEFINED THAN SEEN IN THE MSI
PRESENTATION. A 070912Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 25 TO 30 KNOT GRADIENT
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20
KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT FLOW. EASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW INTO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 18P (DONNA), APPROXIMATELY 1200 NM TO THE WEST, IS CURRENTLY
AIDING IN SPINNING UP THIS LLCC, HOWEVER THIS EFFECT SHOULD EASE AS
18P MOVES FURTHER SOUTH, LEAVING ONLY A SMALL WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE WEAK DEVELOPMENT AND
A QUASISTATIONARY TRACK MOTION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
abpwsair.jpg



點評

兩個颱風的距離有點近,強度25kts.1004hpa,給出low,但不看壞發展  發表於 2017-5-8 21:40
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-5-9 00:02 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC發布TCFA
sh912017.20170508135101.gif

91P_gefs_latest.png

rbtop-animated.gif
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[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-5-9 10:47 | 顯示全部樓層
升19P
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090000Z --- NEAR 15.3S 172.9W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 172.9W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 15.0S 174.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 14.9S 176.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 15.0S 178.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 15.2S 179.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 16.4S 178.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 16.8S 178.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 16.9S 178.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---

sh1917.gif


vis0-lalo.gif


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[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-5-9 11:28 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS 升格"熱低壓",有機會今明2天命名。
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 090235 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 172.7W
AT 090000 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING WEST
NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 09 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS
IMPROVED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP ONTO
LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM STEERED WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL SUB TROPICAL HIGH. DVORAL
ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED PATTERN OF 0.55 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL,
YIELDS DT=2.5, MET AND PAT AGREE. FT BASED DT. THUS YIELDING,
T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 14.9S 174.4W MOV WNW AT  08 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 14.9S 176.1W MOV W AT 08 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 15.0S 178.0W MOV W AT 09 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 15.4S 179.8W MOV W AT 09 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 090800 UTC OR EARLIER.



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[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-5-9 13:28 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS 命名"ELLA",南太5月份雙旋達成,強度上看澳式C2,將趨向斐濟島。
TROPICAL CYCLONE ELLA CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 172.7W AT
090300 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 4 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS.   

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS
IMPROVED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP ONTO
LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM STEERED WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL SUB TROPICAL HIGH. DVORAL
ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED PATTERN OF 0.7 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL, YIELDS
DT=3.0, MET AND PAT AGREE. FT BASED DT. THUS YIELDING,
T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091500 UTC 14.7S 174.5W MOV WNW AT 09 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100300 UTC 14.7S 176.2W MOV W AT 09 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101500 UTC 14.9S 178.0W MOV W AT 09 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110300 UTC 15.3S 179.5W MOV W AT 08 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE ELLA WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 090800 UTC.
79_89185_d235f3ad957747d.gif rbtop-animated (2).gif


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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2017-5-9 15:00 | 顯示全部樓層
南太平洋首見5月命名雙旋,不包含移動到澳洲責任區才命名的系統。
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