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1706 庫拉 與諾盧藤原後發展受限 對流散盡

簽到天數: 1630 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2017-7-19 09:29 | 顯示全部樓層
  輕度颱風  
編號:1706 ( 09 W )
名稱:庫拉 ( Kulap )
1706_KULAP_SUOMINPP.jpg

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2017 07 19 08
升格熱低日期:2017 07 20 02
命名日期  :2017 07 21 14
停編日期  :2017 07 25 20
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB):25 m/s ( 10 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :20 m/s ( 40 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):50 kts ( TS )

海平面最低氣壓與暴風半徑
海平面最低氣壓:985 百帕
七級風半徑  :100 公里
十級風半徑  :---- 公里

  過去路徑圖  
1706_庫拉_KULAP_TRACK_t02436_TWTYBBS.png

  擾動編號資料  
97W.INVEST.15kts.1014mb.24N.180E

20170719.0050.himawari-8.vis.97W.INVEST.15kts.1014mb.24N.180E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

點評

這隻只能說...也太遙遠了。  發表於 2017-7-19 12:18
為什麼外型有點小巧可愛XDD  發表於 2017-7-19 09:43

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
jwpk9899 + 15

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簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-7-19 12:21 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 劉瑞益@FB 於 2017-7-19 13:09 編輯

GFS 巔峰預報~~
gfs_mslp_uv850_wpac_31.png gfs_ir_wpac_31.png
GFS 60-274H數值動態~~ gfs_pres_wind_wpac_fh60-276.gif

點評

背後那小東西讓這個打轉嗎,這個預報有點不靠譜  發表於 2017-7-19 14:50
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[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-7-19 18:30 | 顯示全部樓層
環流跨兩天的,有意思 XD目前風切高的環境掙扎求生


image.gif
image.gif
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2017-7-20 04:43 | 顯示全部樓層
升格熱低
17072003.png
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1012 HPA AT 25N 179E WEST SLOWLY.
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-7-20 06:42 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 21Z評級LOW
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 24.1N 178.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 327 NM SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAY. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR
WRAPPING INTO THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD, ELONGATED, AND EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DEEP CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC, WITH
REFORMATION OF THE LLCC LIKELY AS THE WARM CORE BEGINS TO DEVELOP.
THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A HIGH-SHEAR, BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS ARE PREDICTING THE SYSTEM TO
TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE ONCE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
DECOUPLES FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. AT THIS TIME, THE
DISTURBANCE HAS GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST, WITH MODERATE (20-25KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C).
THE DISTURBANCE IS TRACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
abpwsair (1).jpg rgb-animated (12).gif


點評

受到太平洋高壓阻擋影響他跟前方那隻都會先後逐漸往東邊海面飄去,目前預測資料看來對東亞地區沒有影響。  發表於 2017-7-20 12:09
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[LV.7]常住居民III

asus5635|2017-7-20 07:49 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 asus5635 於 2017-7-20 08:01 編輯

這傢伙的雲帶一直卡在國際換日線附近,感覺好像在那邊徘徊
CPAC_IR.gif


NOAA在18Z的天氣圖當中,標註它為強風帶
NOAA.png

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-7-20 14:01 | 顯示全部樓層
評級提升至Medium
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 24.1N 178.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 177.3E, APPROXIMATELY
430 NM SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAY ISLAND. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED
AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BASED ON ITS LOCATION (DIRECTLY UNDER A
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW); ASYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH
DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED POLEWARD AND EAST OF THE EXPOSED, BROAD
CENTER; WEAK BAROCLINICITY; AND ASYMMETRIC MOISTURE ENVELOPE IN THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH MARGINAL VALUES. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM.
CURRENTLY, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 200410Z
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
EAST QUADRANT WITH DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. A 192136Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 25 TO 35 KNOT WINDS OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
ELSEWHERE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-
LEVEL WIND FIELD AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD WITH MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSISTING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 35
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

abpwsair.jpg

20170720.0210.himawari-8.ircolor.97W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.23N.177.8E.100pc.jpg

點評

分析副熱帶氣旋所以還沒編號  發表於 2017-7-20 15:40
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-7-20 15:34 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA發布GW。
熱帯低気圧
平成29年07月20日16時30分 発表

<20日15時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        ミッドウェー諸島近海
中心位置        北緯 24度40分(24.7度)
東経 179度00分(179.0度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1012hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<21日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        ミッドウェー諸島近海
予報円の中心        北緯 26度40分(26.7度)
東経 177度00分(177.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧        1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)

b-00.png
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