簽到天數: 3291 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2017-7-20 14:01
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評級提升至Medium
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 24.1N 178.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 177.3E, APPROXIMATELY
430 NM SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAY ISLAND. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED
AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BASED ON ITS LOCATION (DIRECTLY UNDER A
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW); ASYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH
DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED POLEWARD AND EAST OF THE EXPOSED, BROAD
CENTER; WEAK BAROCLINICITY; AND ASYMMETRIC MOISTURE ENVELOPE IN THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH MARGINAL VALUES. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM.
CURRENTLY, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 200410Z
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
EAST QUADRANT WITH DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. A 192136Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 25 TO 35 KNOT WINDS OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
ELSEWHERE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-
LEVEL WIND FIELD AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD WITH MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSISTING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 35
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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