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1706 庫拉 與諾盧藤原後發展受限 對流散盡

簽到天數: 173 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-7-20 18:26 | 顯示全部樓層
頭上的高空冷心低開始移離了,大氣環境開始變好
image.bmp

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簽到天數: 581 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

蜜露|2017-7-21 00:31 | 顯示全部樓層



EC的未來 , 支持97W的發展 .

強度不俗 , 距離很遠洋 .  影響日本都未必.
ecmwf_mslp_uv850_wpac_8.png


但是HWRF後期可能會和95W藤原 .

兩家差在95W是否被低估的發展. 差滿多的
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簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2017-7-21 02:15 | 顯示全部樓層
拿到玫瑰的名字機會較大。

currentIntensityNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
dataTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2
cloudPatternTypeOfDtNumber:        1
modelExpectedTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
trendOfPast24HourChangeDevelopedWeakened:        1
patternTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
cloudPictureTypeOfPtNumber:        2
finalTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
finalTNumberType:        2

點評

泰國提供的名字,這名字的意思是玫瑰  發表於 2017-7-21 18:51
alu
請問玫瑰昰哪國的翻譯  發表於 2017-7-21 17:06
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簽到天數: 2429 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-7-21 13:22 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC終於發布TCFA,風速已達35節。
WTPN22 PGTW 210530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210421ZJUL17//
AMPN/REF IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 210430)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25.5N 177.2E TO 29.4N 169.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
210500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N
177.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 24.6N 177.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 177.2E, APPROXIMATELY
335 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAY ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. A 210358Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS A SMALL LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY
INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THIS SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO HAVE SOME
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, HOWEVER, CORE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
AND ORGANIZED AS THE UPPER-LOW HAS SHIFTED NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.

ADDITIONALLY, THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THE
SYSTEM HAS MOISTENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST DAY. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY AND COCOONED FROM
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH RAPID DEEPENING AND
CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30
TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
220530Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 124.7E.//
NNNN

wp9717.gif

20170721.0358.f16.91pct91h91v.97W.INVEST.35kts.1008mb.25.3N.177E.090pc.jpg

rbtop-animated.gif

點評

就這樣看老J是一直當他是副熱帶氣旋而不出TCFA啊  發表於 2017-7-21 13:47
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簽到天數: 2429 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-7-21 15:16 | 顯示全部樓層
命名庫拉。
台風第6号 (クラー)
平成29年07月21日16時15分 発表

<21日15時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        ミッドウェー諸島近海
中心位置        北緯 26度35分(26.6度)
東経 177度05分(177.1度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧        1008hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
15m/s以上の強風域        北側 330km(180NM)
南側 220km(120NM)

<22日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        ミッドウェー諸島近海
予報円の中心        北緯 29度25分(29.4度)
東経 170度55分(170.9度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        20m/s(40kt)
最大瞬間風速        30m/s(60kt)
予報円の半径        110km(60NM)

<23日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        日本のはるか東
予報円の中心        北緯 31度05分(31.1度)
東経 166度50分(166.8度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        992hPa
中心付近の最大風速        23m/s(45kt)
最大瞬間風速        35m/s(65kt)
予報円の半径        180km(95NM)

<24日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        日本のはるか東
予報円の中心        北緯 32度20分(32.3度)
東経 163度30分(163.5度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧        990hPa
中心付近の最大風速        25m/s(50kt)
最大瞬間風速        35m/s(70kt)
予報円の半径        240km(130NM)

1706-00.png
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簽到天數: 674 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

sh991016|2017-7-21 15:16 | 顯示全部樓層
[size=15.008px]小J升格為今年第六號颱風庫拉
1706-00.png
<21日15時の実況>
大きさ-
強さ-
存在地域ミッドウェー諸島近海
中心位置北緯 26度35分(26.6度)
東経 177度05分(177.1度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧1008hPa
中心付近の最大風速18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速25m/s(50kt)
15m/s以上の強風域北側 330km(180NM)
南側 220km(120NM)

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簽到天數: 2429 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-7-21 16:44 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC終於編正式號09W,巔峰暫時上望50節。
WTPN33 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (KULAP) WARNING NR 001   
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210600Z --- NEAR 26.5N 177.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.5N 177.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 28.5N 175.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 29.7N 172.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 30.1N 169.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 30.6N 167.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 31.9N 163.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 33.0N 159.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 33.5N 157.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 27.0N 176.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 723 NM
NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z
IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (NORU) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

wp0917.gif
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-7-21 16:56 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 升格為09W
wp0917.gif

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